I'm not ready to make it a full prediction yet...but....

North Korea is being North Korea. Yesterday, the news was that the North Korean negociator in South Korea went on a rant and stormed out of the sessions after the South Korean team started by expressing their wish NK would fullfill its obligations by shutting down the reactor as they promised in the New Nuke Deal.

Today, we read that the Norks delayed the start of the meetings, that were to begin in the morning, until late that evening with a fresh round of suprise demands.

This is all par for the course in North Korea's negociation playbook.

To me ---- this is a clear sign ---- Pyongyang feels really good about its position since the 6 Party Talks cut the deal that was cut.

Back in late-2005, I looked around and decided North Korea was showing signs of really hurting from the slight increases in pressure the US was able to turn up on Pyongyang -- especially the banking pressure.

That led me to predict 2006 would not pass without an ICBM test, and if that didn't get the US to bend, a nuke test would follow (but I thought it would take 4 to 6 to 12 months before the North tried it, which they didn't when they quickly moved to a nuke test).

Now, I am almost ready to predict that within 12 months, or possibly before Jan 1st 2008, NK will fire off another ICBM.

Why?

Not because they are hurting. I still think they are probably hurting:

The US has not eased off its banking moves. It freed the $25 million for NK to pick up, but it appears the banking community believes the US treasury department is still poised to strike at any bank that attempts to re-establish NK's money laundering system that handles its fake dollars, drug proceeds, military hardware and technology sales, fake smokes, and other things......

That means --- a MAJOR source of vital income for the regime is on hold.

But.....I believe the way NK's team is acting in Seoul is a sign:

that Kim Jong Il believes the US & crew are definately on the ropes and caving. I believe it means NK thinks the latest Nuke Deal is a --- sure fire sign of weakness ---- and it has already gotten a fair amount of aid immediately after the deal was struck. (Like SK sending an official with $400,000 in cash in a suitcase to give to NK to "buy video conferencing equipment" for future family reunions).

Much of the world press has been bashing Bush's New Nuke Deal. Bush lost a big election and then flipflopped and floundered around since then.
Even Bush's normal supporters are beating him up on the New Nuke Deal.

I think NK smells blood, and it is doing what it does --- pushing harder.

Given both of these things:

1. the continuing need to get the US to loosen up the screws carefully increased over the last few years

&

2. a belief their recent ICBM and Nuke Tests won them major capitulations at the 6 Party Talks....

I believe if NK does not get relief in the banking sector and/or the shipment of fuel oil and/or rice aid ----

--- it will easily decide shooting up another ICBM is a darn good strategy.

I also think since the last test resulted in the missible being blown up barefly after it got above the launch pad -----

---NK also needs to run another test to judge their equipment and design.

(Which introducing a factor that runs counter to my not-as-yet-prediction:

if NK's ICBM design truly sucks --- and the Koreans know this ---- the failure of the last test might send them back to the drawing board for a couple of years at least ----

----they might not want to test another ICBM ---- because ---

every time they test something that is a clear, unmigated failure ---

Pyongyang fears it has just made a US military strike on it more likely...)