Sunshine policy finally beginning to show?

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/HH05Dg01.html

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Chill

There are some key points in that article.

The South Korean government has ignored the human rights abuses in North Korea to keep stability on the peninsula resulting in continued economic growth in South Korea. Basically, they are content with the status quo to maintain economic growth.

It is obvious that this position is marginalizing the Seoul government. President Roh has made a complete fool of himself. Just ask the Philippines what happens economically when the U.S. pulls all of their forces out. The Japanese and Germans understand that keeping the US around makes sense economically. What disturbs the elder Koreans is the weakening ties between Seoul and Washington. The Germans and Japanese were occupied by the US and the US killed millions of their civilians before the occupation. In South Korea, tens of thousands of Americans died keeping their country free and no one can doubt the economic prosperity South Korea enjoyed and enjoys today due to the alliance with America.

It is obvious that Seoul played poker and lost badly. They thought, "China and Russia will play the same game as in the past and we will look smart and the US will only Japan."

South Korea does not understand China. They also don't understand how mad Japan is this time. China relies on Japan and America as their most important customers. North Korea is a welfare state for China. China loves to see the US flounder, but they don't want to see North Korea push Japan to a nuclear and offensive power. I have a feeling Russia has had enough of North Korea as well.

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It has been the past several years that Korea has hoped China would support them. They favored China over US for reasons that have not really been too clear. I suspect they wanted China to broker a deal with nK to gain access to the cheaper labor force in the North. South Korea has since shipped a lot of the manufacturing to China recently. The Industrialist are always in search of cheap labor force. When the US adopted NAFTA you could see the plants closing up and sending the goods south for assembly. The export numbers were a sham. What they would do would report the goods being exported and imported. I am sure anyone with any degree of reasoning could see through the smoke screen. A good example is the CBI 0r Caribbean Initiative. Several warehouses were set up in Florida where they had machines that unrolled and laid out the fabric. A laser CAD design machine would cut the patterns. The components were then loaded on aircraft and sent to the Caribbean where factory workers being paid nominal wages would assemble the material. This showed up as a plus for Imports for the country where they were being made. As quick as they could assemble the clothing they were being sent back to New York, or other distribution centers. This was a credit for export for the country of manufacture and an import for the US. We are always looking for the best deal and could give a rip of the consequences. A similar analogy could be made for oil. The oil companies who are profiting need to return the funds they are stealing off the sweat of the military who is bearing the burden so others can drive their SUV's and other gas guzzlers.

China does not want the nK refugee problem since they have enough people to look after. Russia is hardly able to take care of their own and definetly do not want the refugees.

I think they should allow 60% of the salary from the younger people who think re-unification is a good thing to pay for the cost of bringing the fence down. They could also save time an trouble by asking the German people who endured the wall coming down what it was like.

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Chill

Peaceful re-unification has turned into a pipe dream. The ROK is headed for a military coup if those in charge of the administrations policies stay on the current path.

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Agree with most of the above. I suspect that the last three years with Noh have negated 20 years of gains worldwide in International standing. No western democracy trusts the South anymore and it will take a generation to get it back. If another currency crisis hits (and i think it is inevitable) or the US decides to relocate a major portion of it's troops then katy bar the door this place is headed for a major meltdown. If that happens it will join a long list of third world countries that almost made it only to implode and destroy their economies.

And I agree that all the above is very possible. Maybe there is a way out, but it had best surface quickly. The U.S. Air Force may force the issue soon, as they can't stay where they can't train pilots. Bombing Ranges too noisy for the neighboring Golf Courses? Well, South Korea, decide which is most important to you!

South Korea looks to China for a variety of reason: the most practicle, to them at least, is that they share a strong goal with China - prevent a collapse of the North at all costs. And they will continue to share that whether Roh and Uri party are in the Blue House or the GNP takes over after next year's election. The GNP might change the face of the SK-NK relationship. They might even cut back on the goodies Pyongyang gets - but at the end of the day, both SK and China will do what needs to be done - above board or under the table, to make sure unification does not happen in the only manner unification is going to happen: a collapse of the North.

South Korean society has also fully bought into the idea China has the United States' days numbered as "the #1 super power". They believe China will become more powerful than the US within a couple of decades. And they are thus calculating it is better to move toward China now. But, besides "calculating" there is also a fair amount of racial thought mixed it. A "wanting" of China to become #1 whether they understand where that want comes from or not.

Next, China and Korea have centuries of history working together. In the late 19th Century, many Korean intellectuals ripped this history apart: they claimed it was a master-slave relationship. But, really, it was a mutually benefical relationship in which Korea imported social institutions, technology, philosophy, and more to strengthen Korean society. They also helped each other try to contain the problems that were forever present with the nomadic, raiding tribes of Mongolia and Manchuria, which continually caused problems in the norther part of Korea and China. Through that relationship, Korea also was known to have a higher standing in Asia than, say, Japan or Vietnam.

But, South Korea's push toward China today and how they are doing do marginalize it more than anything.

When the collapse of the North comes, China is not going to have the resources the South needs to soften the blow. The South will badly need what only the US and Japan can offer, but it is busy kicking both nations in the balls.

South Korea also does not correctly estimate what value China sees in it.

SK has long had a habit of over-estimating how much the US thinks it "needs" Korea. Especially since the end of the Cold War. It seems to be doing the same with China. Russia, the US, the EU, and perhaps Japan are much more important to China's future than South Korea. South Korea is a bonus. A nice regional partner. But, if China wants to be a global power on par with the EU and US, and if it wants to fullfill the growth potential everyone sees for it, the EU and US will be much more important for China to get along with than South Korea. That is exactly what we saw with this recent UN resolution.

The GNP does a much better job of understanding on what side Korea's bread is buttered on. They will still seek to increase trade and relations with China. They will work with China to prevent a collapse of the North, but they will also work hard to maintain a good relationship with the US. I'm not sure about with Japan.

But, as long as Korean universities (and now lower education) continues to beat up on the US and Japan and speak glowingly about the rise of China, the GNP will have some stiff opposition.