The following is a Quote from Mr. Joe in the Non-Command Sponsored Dependents thread under Osan Air Base. I thought it was interesting enought to spark a discussion from all concerned.

"I have been in and out of Korea for 46 years. I'm in Seoul, and I sleep well at
night. The "Dear Leader" is called that because he has convinced the populace that he is the only thing standing between them and an attack by the terrible USA. They believe in him completely. His Army may or may not.
Anyway, it appears that he will make some more noise trying to get some respect from the outside world. I don't believe he is desperate enough to turn against South Korea, which, in truth, is the only country in the world who will pay any attention to him. He really is more of a pain in the side, or lower, of China, rather than an ally. Conditions in his country are poor, and will not be improved by this last action. No one can predict the future, but I personally won't worry about our family here. This will be defused soon.
My personal opinion, (Educated Risk Assessment, if you will), is that by the time the situation would become serious enough to require evacuation of non-essential personnel, the NEO evacuation plan has a 50-50 chance at best of accomplishing a successful evacuation. If you can imagine a Chinese fire drill, this would be it. It will be like every person in Korea trying to get to the airport at once!
You will have to make your own decision. I'm not leaving . I've been much closer to trouble in the past, and presently am not worried. Of course our child is grown, and lives back in Las Vegas."

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JIMMY JOE

Fortunately the NEO plan does not call for commercial aircraft useage out of Incheon. That would assuredly not work. Since the plan would be based on an emerging situation, I am assured that the plan would be implemented in a timely manner. Those who chose not to evacuated, particularly in Seoul would be foolish. Death wold assuredly await them.

But I agree with Mr. Joe, that such a scenario is not likely in the near term. Beyond 5 years from now... who knows.

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JIMMY JOE

Quote me anytime. I'm not saying the NEO is not a good plan, as a lot of work has gone into it, and the exercises (without bags, dogs, cats, and dozens of dependents) are very smooth. Everyone please have your special bag ready, and a list of what you may own, CS may be reimbursed for what must be left behind. We will use it if the time ever comes, as the choices will be few. I just don't believe NK ever wants to be destroyed!

I suspect Seoul would be a great target for display of firepower, but if I was Kim Jong Il , and wanted to delay my suicide a little bit, I think I would raise my sights a click or two and hit SUWON & OSAN AB dead on. It might give him time to take a shower and put on clean shorts before the Eagle gets him.

I agree with most of Mr. Joe's comments.

I don't agree that North Korea is a pain to China and not an ally.

Many people believe that North Korea is a welfare state to China and China would like nothing better than to get rid of Kim Jong-il and the needy North Korean people. People see the news clips of the Chinese grabbing the North Korean refugees and throwing them back over the border and think the Chinese are annoyed. This is simply not true!

What I think most people fail to see is the big picture through China's eyes.

First, I believe China loves it when North Korea fires off missiles and causes stress to Japan and the U.S. China is in bed with Japan economically, but I believe Japan, Korea (both North and South) and China are joined together in a love/hate relationship. China is South Korea's #1 importer and Japan and China are huge trading partners. China can not rock the boat with Japan and South Korea, but North Korea can. North Korea is simply doing what the Chinese would love to do; fire missiles towards Japan and make the Japanese people/government sweat and make the US jump threw hoops.

Second, China loves to feel important. The Chinese government knows that Japan and the U.S. will have to talk to them if they want to deal with North Korea. Again, this is another reason China loves seeing North Korea act like a kid. This means the US will have to ask China for help.

All of this comes with a dash of caution. China's biggest fear would be for South Korea and Japan to turn their civilian nuclear sources into military ones. China loves to be the only kid in Asia with a true nuclear force (outside of the U.S. of course). China will allow North Korea to push the U.S., South Korea and Japan just far enough and to their advantage. They will pull the North Korean leash if they go to far.

As you can see the North Korean situation benefits China a lot. Negotiation go through them and it is a way they can stick it to Japan and the US. China loves having North Korea around as it costs them a marginal amount of fuel and rice each year.

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How about this then-China uses North Korea as a "tool of opportunity"?
I totally agree with Mike, however, I wouldn't count on China's help in an emergency, if I were Kim Jong Il. That's why I say they are not "Allied."

I still feel safer here than in, say, New York. Guess you saw the news about uncovering a plan to flood the tunnels around New York?

Bet you missed the news blurb, although not on the first page, where Taiwan
(Free China) recently said quietly, "We have missiles, too!"
If you want to worry-do it there. Even though we chickened out and took our US Embassy out of Taiwan to make Mainland China happy, we didn't take our commercial interests out. Any guesses what will happen when (not if) China decides it is time to reclaim their former colony?