I don't think they will ever ask us to leave! Wouldn't be prudent! We will move out on our own if we eventually do go.
Their government could go on without us being here. It has basically achieved a level if corruption equal to ours.
Numbers wise, the South Korean Military can hold its own as well as any small country. Training and discipline wise, probably. (I'm not sure if North Korea really has a "Million Man Army" anyway.) They might be using movie extras in their propoganda ads, like Moses did in the old movies. But the truth is, even if we leave the country, we won't abandon our allies.(Except for Taiwan, which eventually will go back to China. We say we love them, but Chiang Kai Shek is dead, and we no longer have an embassy in Taiwan.) Did you ever try to take a tiger cub away from its mother?
I believe we could downsize here sooner than anyone thinks. Politics can change the plans to build an American City in Pyong Taek. I believe we will soon decide where we will build our Permanent Far East Military Stronghold.
It could be wherever the trade winds blow, maybe even Hawaii.
Economics might favor Korea as that base. We have already got the basics
here. Strategically, is it the best choice? Boy, what an anti-missile defense we would have to have this close to China and North Korea? "Listen! Is that the three minute warning siren?" Where is my NEO bag?
Guam? A little more survivable? What do you think?

earnstaff,

First, welcome to the site! Good to see another active member.

I think it is smart on South Korea's part to keep Americans here. There are so many advantages to having the U.S. military in South Korea.

First, the South Koreans have enjoyed trade benefits with the US they would not have had without the US stationed in their country. The South Korean economy grew through the 50s - 90s because the U.S. bought electronics and invested in South Korea. I would say South Korea is much less reliant on the U.S. today as China and Japan are now major trading partners, but U.S. trade and investment is still critical to the South Korean economy.

Second, there is no country that could bully South Korea as long as U.S. forces are here. The same goes with Taiwan. If the U.S. did not have a treaty, Taiwan would already be occupied by China today. As long as U.S. forces are in South Korea, countries like Japan, China, Russia and North Korea can not invade South Korea without paying a huge price both in the military and economics areas.

Saying all of this, the South Korean youths are much like teenagers rebelling against their parents. A teenager does't always act in his best interest. If the far left wing of South Korea continues to assume power, I believe the U.S. will leave South Korea in 10 years. The U.S. can only take so much verbal abuse from South Korea. They even pissed off Hilliary Clinton with their Inchon protest!

Going forward, I think the U.S. has more interest in Japan than South Korea. Also, Japan pays 95% of the costs to base U.S. forces so we are much more welcomed there. South Korea pays less than half of our base costs now and they complain all the time.

Mike

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Since I started paying attention to Korea when I first arrived there in 1995, it was never just a "youth" thing with anti-US alliance thought. The polls and my own experience teaching only adults my first two years in Korea convinced me of that.

I used to say the clear divide in thinking was found at age 50, but now, it has risen to 65 or higher. Below that, the real "pro-alliance" numbers drop off dramatically.

The 20 somethings, especially college educated, are the most anti-US/USFK, but not because of their core beliefs. They share many of those with the average Korean adult over 30, again especially the college educated ones, but where they really differ is on what to do about those beliefs.

Even with the 20s, only a minority truly want USFK out now and the US kept at arm's length. The majority like to pretend they believe so, but if push came to shove, they'd back down.

Above the 20s, there is a more begrudging acceptance that the alliance is needed, and I use the word "needed" in its most pejorative sense -- something like needed to be "used".

In short, below the age of 65, the average South Korean views USFK and to a slightly lesser extent the whole of the US-SK relationship as a cancer on their society -- a cancer they just can't afford to cut out, yet....

And they will never move to cut it out, because they see too many advantages in using it like a prostitute.

(That might sound harsh, but it is true, and putting it more mildly would cloud the truth.)

On what would happen if the US left?

South Korea can defend itself, and even with effective use of WMDs - especially chemical and biological tactical weapons - North Korea won't be strong enough to grab a hold of the South and keep it.

South Korea will also never unify itself with a morbidly weak North Korea and it does not have the economic strength to build the North up enough for them to wish to unify with it (in reality rather than what they say they really want).

The biggest problem with the US leaving is what the North will think.

Does the North know it could not win Korean War II even if the US stays out of it?

That is the gamble.

Prett good analysis, USinKorea. North Korea is hardheaded, but I can't believe they are, or will be stupid enough to attack their "Brothers" to the south. Even if they saw the movie "The Mouse that Roared", they would have to know that their government would be competely destroyed in a few days. South Korea needs their natural resources as much as they want our rice.

I don't know if the North knows or not. Kim Jong Il has all the knowledge available to him, and he probably knows, but he is the type of person who could delude himself into believing it is possible.

Also, he and others could go on the "best shot" theory --- if their goal is to do more than just survive as a 2nd nation on the peninsula, they might be looking for the best chance they have at unifying it by force and try it whether they believe they have a better than 50/50 chance or not.

What is more worrisome is the lack of knowledge below Kim Jong Il.

We don't know how much the top military leaders know. We don't know how much they buy into the propaganda about the strength of the North compared to the weakness of the South????

A Korean prof in the US who had escorted some North Korea officials visiting the US around said he took them to a Korean Buddhist temple. On the way back to the city, he said one of them saw a cross on a Christian church and asked if Buddhism and Christianity were the same thing.

He said some North Korean officials are up to date on what is going on in the world while others are grossly ignorant.

And the problem is that knowledge and ability are not the factors that determine power positioning in the society --- loyalty to the Kim regime and Kim personally is what gets people placed in power or purged.

Who knows what NK would do with USFK gone?

One thing is pretty clear, I believe, and I think North Korea knows this better than the South and a lot of the think tank people in the US....

....if all US forces are taken off the peninsula, and the North does attack, South Korea can wipe their backsides with the US-SK formal alliance if they think it means we will reintroduce ground troops back into a fight.

There will be no more Trumans with a nuclear armed North or just one with the variety and stockpiles of WMDs it has.

There is no way the American people would agree to risk seeing a nuclear explosion taking out thousands of US troops to defend South Korea 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 years after we just left - when South Korea has the technilogical, social, and economic advantages over the North it enjoys.

If people know their Korean history, there are a lot of things different from the 1950-53 Korean war and a possible war today.

In the late 1940s, the idiots in the UN passed a resolution for both Koreas to disarm. Of course, the North Koreans continued to arm while the South followed international law, never building up their military. When the North invaded, they took Seoul within a few days as the South was in no way prepared to take on a modern tank like the T-34.

Even the US was not prepared and Task Force Smith (sent from Japan) was little match for the North Koreans. Bringing World War II equipment to a 1950s war was no match for modern Soviet tanks.

Today, South Korea enjoys the advantage of superiority in modern military equipment and a well trained military. They also enjoy the advantage of being a defending force with years to prepare for a defense. This ensure that they will not be taken over from the North.

Having said all of that, the North Koreans would not invade South Korea to reunify. I think if USFK pulled out, North korea would blackmail the South Korean government. Anyone familiar with Korea knows that the North Koreans will probably not win a war, but they will kill millions of South Koreans. This is the major disadvantage South Korea has; their capital is so close to the DMZ.

Kim Jong-il does not have to invade South Korea to reunify. He simply has to remind the South Korean government that they can kill millions of civilians, call for a cease fire, and he will still remain in power. Let's look at a scenario.

In 2010, USFK forces leave South Korea due to the growing anti-US sentiments (due to a few notorious crimes committed by GIs). Within 6 months under North Korean demands, South Korea begins sending twice the food aid north. Several years pass and North Korea continues to ask for more food aid and now for cash. South Korea pays. Eventually, South Korea (after 3-4 years of paying huge amounts of food and cash aid) denies a new, larger request from the North. Tensions flare for 6 months and eventually North Korea invades South Korea. The war lasts 1 week and is a stalemate. The North Koreans are stopped, but over 1 million South Korean civilians are killed from artillery and missile attacks. As the South Koreans are making a slow advance north, the North Koreans call for a truce. The UN, under Russian and Chinese pressure, agrees (the US abstains from voting) and the South Koreans are force the take the truce.

Does this sound out of the question or off the wall?

By invading the South, the North Koreans get to deflect attention from themselves and rally the North Korean people against the South. Additionally, the North gets to kill off a large part of their population; having less mouths to feed. Through propaganda, they can make their population believe that the South Koreans started to invasion (many North Koreans believe the South started the 1950 war). A scenario like this keeps the rulers in power for decades and destroys the South Korean economy.

Mike

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Well,USINKOREA, I guess you would be right about no US ground troops. The US Air Force just yesterday commissioned the new F-21A Stealth Platform. (Formerly called the F-A21) It is so much more than a fighter or a bomber. The days of footsoldiers as primary fighters are essentially gone. I have always envisioned future wars being fought from an underground bunker. I have a Master Missle Badge (Pocket Rocket) from the early days of that vision. I reckon the time is near. But I can't agree that we would not assist South Korea if they asked.

But, ground troops and armor might be necessary to occupy the North.

I doubt it. If the North invaded and the South held its own, once the North's first and perhaps 2nd punch had fell, I think the North Korean people would help the South Korean military make a bloodbath of the North.

That is another factor I don't know if the North understands either. And we don't know. There are plenty of examples of defectors, even those who were in prison camps, saying they believed in the regime (believed all the lies) for most of their lives.

Maybe Mike's thought would turn out to be true and the NK would rally around the government.

Or, maybe risking a war and failing, it would expose itself as weak, as well as send much of its internal forces out of the country, and maybe the people would rebell like crazy.

The biggest problem is --- we just don't know ----- ???

That is the key. Let's say the regime found itself in trouble and a revolution was near. Everything is about regime survival. Why not invade the South and deflect attention to the South Koreans?

Mike

If it will rally the masses....

But, it will also take away forces that can be used to turn on the masses....

I think the "invade to rally domestic support" is a real possibility.

I am more worried about murder for sheer spite.

As the highest level defector said in 1997 or 1998 --- The North will not go down alone. He said the regime is obsessed with the idea. And the frequent reference to "sea of fire" --- at that time --- was what that guy said the North thought about the idea of it collapsing and just letting the South wait and watch and then unify after the North implodes....

..he said Kim Jong Il would rather go down with his finger on the button watching Seoul burn in a firey hell as his regime falls due to internal rebellion.

I think that is the kind of mind-set the North Korean regime has demonstrated over time.

I think if it thinks it stands a good chance of losing control, it will lash out, not as a real "invasion" but simply to kill as many South Koreans (and GIs if they are still in country) as he can --- and probably strike at Japan too.

And probably lob an untested ICBM at Alaska and California and such too....