We probably saw the pre-game warm up for the Pyongtaek push this past weekend. Judging by www.voiceofpeople.org, they put a lot of stuff up about the protest even though it was not too large or violent. I believe it is meant to advertise the start of the effort against the base expansion. The effort has been going on for more than a year, but the regular season is right now ---- the hold outs and squaters trucked in from elsewhere were supposed to be moved out by the end of Feb. That didn't happen. But, the government can't delay it forever, can they?

By the way, the pre-season for the push came last spring and summer in two large violent riots on the camp defense line.

You can see the images and videos from this weekend by clicking around this site: http://www.vop.co.kr/new/VOP4totallist_left.html?code=

Find the 3-06 and 3-05 list and click on the links with the video icons.

A few things are clear and easy to read right not.

1. The current trend is to encourage non-violent protests. We have seen this in the press and public on a variety of protest issues going back to last Fall --- both anti-US and non-anti-US protest issues. The press and society have put out the message they would prefer non-violence and are tired of the usual crap - especially when it is noticed by the media of other nations.

To understand the anti-US groups, you should know they do listen to messages like this. They do fear alieanting the average Korean, because they know to accomplish anything significant, they need the support or at least tacit approval of the society as a whole. So, they know when not to push to hard.

This doesn't mean they always listen. No. Frequently, when they are dealing with an issue they think won't catch the imagination of the bulk of the people, they will use violence, even extreme violence, with no regard for how it will play in the press, because they don't believe the press is interested enough in the issue to care, and if it does, they know from long experience if they simply duck their heads and kill the protests altogether for a few months, things will revert to normal, and they can go back to business.

2. This means the non-violence or weak scuffles like we have seen so far this year at Pyongtaek will not last.

Korean society is a semi-violenct protest culture. I used the term "semi-violent" because it is different from in the US. We would consider it a violent protest culture, but that misses the unwritten rules about it in Korean society.

For example, just in general, many people have noticed how drunk Koreans are more likely to start yelling at each other and laying hands on each other, but it rarely goes beyond tugging on clothing.

This is alien to Americans. We are less likely to start yelling at each other and especially less likely to start physical contact, but when we do, we beat the hell out of each other.

That is why I call the protest culture in Korea "semi-violent". -- the norm is violence, but controlled -- even if we are talking about bashing each other with bamboo poles and riot control clubs or throwing fire bombs.

And this is the norm in Korea and it isn't going to change just because for a little while they have been calling for an end to the typical protest culture.

3. Right now the anti-US groups believe using the non-violent approach will sell better in the society right now. That is why you have seen they told the university organizations and labor organizations to stay away from the main Pyongtaek protests since the new year.

But, as soon as they believe they have gotten as much as they can out of this show, and the first time they believe something has happened that justifies the triggering "righteous rage" --- the violence like back last Spring and Summer will return over night.

"Respect my righteous rage" is an important aspect of Korean society you get to see after while. It is what justifies the more frequent yelling and shirt pulling, but also what prevents the full on violence like we would see in the US. It is difficult to describe, so I'll just leave it at that...

But, it will not take much for the anti-US groups to believe they have the necessary elements to trigger righteous rage, and they have a 50/50 chance that the media will agree that they have done their best and of course hae to rage rage rage now.

Which leads me to another point.

4. We have seen the press and government are split down the middle on what to do about this Pyongtaek situation.

The press has been unusually quiet on the issue.

Not only do they usually give more attention to such issues connected to USFK and the US-SK relationship, the Pyongtaek issue is clearly central to the next coming decades of the US-SK strategic partnership.

No matter how this Land Partnership Plan and moving Yongsan comes out in the end, how it evolves will set the tone for the relationship for a long time. It is the most crucial issue and everybody knows it.

So, you would expect more routine coverage of it at least.

The fact the press has only produced a trickle means they have not decided how to play it yet. It is an issue that touches on two fundamental, contradictory currents in Korean society ---

They like to define their nationalism by how much they complain about the US. They enjoy a culture of anti-Americanism. But, they also don't want to see the alliance end. They like to talk about it as a cancer on their society, but they don't want to remove it just yet.

At Pyongtaek specifically, the base expansion touches on several things they like to think about in the anti-US grab bag ---

the US pushing Korea around making them do things they don't like --- in this instance paying for the Yongsan move, moving troops off the DMZ, as well as hurting the little people.

And the hurting the peasants and poor farmers and down trodden is a likeable issue. The poor farmers having their land "stolen" by USFK is a symbol for South Korea as a whole. It is how they like to think about the whole relationship --- like President Roh and the Unification Minister saying a "secret hand" was behind all the big problems in Korean society going back to the colonization by Japan.

Of course, if you or I start to question this idea, the society will fall back into expressing appreciation for what the relationship has allowed Korea to accomplish, but in general, when they don't have to, they prefer to not give credit but complain.

Next, terrible US bastard bases has been a long time great issue. GI criminals. Camp town prostitution. Destroying the local community. Disregard for Korea's lives and feelings. And so on.

So, it would be natural for the media and beyond to have taken up the anti-US group's message on Pyongtaek.

If it were not for the fact the Land Partnership Plan is clearly something the US government is going to let sit on the shelf for another decade -- and that means it will define the future of the alliance.

For the first time since the early 1990s, and then the late 1970s before that (and the early 1970s before that), South Korean society really believes there is a chance the US would remove all or virtually all of USFK --- especially if things get out of control. (I wan't paying attention then, but I don't think the fear of removal when Sen. Sam Nunn brought the idea up in the early 1990s went far beyond the Korean government. Not like it did when Pres. Carter said he was going to or when Nixon removed a very large chunk of the troops and thought about taking out even more).

And when the average Koreans and bulk of the people fear doing real damage to the allaince, they usually turtle and wait for later. And the press will often lead the charge by telling everyone to be quiet.

That is the two conflicting trends in Korean society right now on display.

The press is silent.

It is not championing the cause of the poor farmers and peasants by quoting extensively the anti-US leaders and running story after story about base pollution and GI crimes and camp town prostitution. We have seen some spurts of such coverage the last few months, but no clear trend.

The press is also not coming out telling the people the Pyongtaek expansion might be bad or have troubles, but it is a necessary evil, and if they let the anti-US civic groups run wild, Korea could pay too heavy a price in the alliance and/or in the American press.

If the press did come out with that message, they might have a significant effect in making the Pyongtaek expansion run smoother than could have been hoped for.

I thought there was a chance they would put that message out in a clear, strong way, but they have not (so far and now it is a little too late to prevent the worst - though they might still come out swinging for the alliance when the crap does hit the fan for all to see).

Right now, they have chosen to ignore the issue and hope for the best --- which means the best has even less of a chance coming about.

Now to the government. It has always been torn between the desire to view the US as a problem and as a necessary evil --- even back in the days when people today say the Korean government was totally gung-ho pro-Uncle Sam.

It is even more so now that someone from the typical anti-US crowd in the past has been elected president. Even worse, this is an election year.

President Roh and the like now in the exectuive office and a power in the National Assembly do not find defending the alliance coming easily. Some of Roh's positive statements to the press since he was elected looked down right painful.

Their hearts really are with the anti-US groups and the poor peasants being ridden over roughshod by the bad US military who won't even give Korea war time control of Korean troops...

In an election year, they certainly don't want to send police and prosecutors down to deal sternly with the anti-US group leaders and their core supporters and the people they have convinced to squat on the land needed for the Pyongtaek expansion. Video of old women and men being pulled from homes (whether they own them or moved in after the owners sold and left) will make them feel bad and damage their core political base.

And that is my last big point about this weeks protests.

It is not a good sign the government did not send out national authority people to deal with the squaters at the elementary school.

This is the early stage --- and the anti-US group leaders will read the signs. They are experts at it -- far beyond me.

If the central government had sent down many riot police and regular police. If they had forced their way into the school grounds or used other means to get the protesters to open the gates, and if they had arrested large groups of the protesters ----- and if they had given heavy fines to the group leaders, perhaps a couple months in jail, and even gone so far as to give personally large fines to a large number of the protesters --

it could have sent a message and helped dampen down the future protests.

The fact that the government ordered local authorities in --- and these were unable to deal with the protesters and eventually backed off ---- is the worst message to send.

Not only does it signal the government doesn't have the stomach to push through the expansion

it will be seen as a victory for the anti-US groups.

It will encourage the leadership to push harder, and it will encourage fence sitters to think more about joining in the protests.

The non-media coverage does much the same.

And the anti-US civis groups will definately see what the government sent out last weekend as a green light......