If you actually take the time to read the articles I have up at www.usinkorea.org you will see me frequently talk about "a spike" in anti-US activity. The report to Congress on anti-US thought in Korea made note of this, but got it basically wrong:

NGO activity in South Korea tends to have an exaggerated peak-and-valley nature that appears to be a direct result of what one U.S. scholar of Korean politics has called a “loose, coalition style of civic activism.” Typically, a high-profile event results in a few groups taking the lead in putting together a coalition of disparate NGOs, resulting in large-scale protests. As issues lose steam, the activism fades dramatically because each member organization has its own agendas that may have nothing to do with the anti-American issue at hand.

The peaks and valleys are not caused by individual groups focused on individual issues losing coordination with each other. Not at all. The anti-US groups are out working all the time and constantly join up with each other. A spike in anti-US activity is not caused when these groups manage to come together. No. No. No. No.

A spike comes when it becomes clear the society is receptive to venting on whatever individual issue is at hand.

The plenthora of anti-US groups are out pounding the pavement 365 days a year. Someone connected to one of these groups is out there somewhere right now trying to jin up support for protesting a GI fart in the wind. Whatever the issue: a standard traffic accident, 20 gallons of fromalin illegally dumped in a base sewer, the US Embassy trying to move ahead with plans to relocate, an unscheduled emergeny bomb release ON a USFK training range, whatever --- big or tiny --- a vicious rape and murder or an off-hand comment by the American ambassador --- is played up by these groups constantly.

And every once in awhile, when the mood is right, more and more average Koreans decide to join in.

That is what causes the spike.

And seeing this idea put forward by people talking to Congress - that spikes are basically issue focused intrest groups coming together - frustrates me a good bit, because it means people in power misunderstand the situation in a very fundamental way.

The best way to see it is if you look at how totally unconnected elements that generate "a mood" in the society - can easily transfer over to the worst spikes in anti-US activity.

If those 20 gallons of fromalin had not been dumped around the time of the NK-SK Summit, the case would not have lasted more than a week. Green Korea would have tried to get the Korean media to trumpet blast the masses into the street, and the media would have shurgged its shoulders and ran one or two stories, and the people would have hummed and hawed and gone about their lives.

But, euphoria over the great enemy North Korea actually perhaps being a good friend and long lost (troubled) brother --- quickly led to the idea USFK probably wasn't needed anymore --- which immediately translated into a rabid period of anti-American fury over 20 gallons of fromalin.

In 2002, the tank accident would have generated a spike in anti-US activity, but it would not have been close to what actually happened ---- if South Korean nationalism and pride had not been so highly stoked by both hosting the World Cup and the Korean team doing so well.

To believe spikes in demonstraed anger are issue driven misses the point fundamentally.....

And spikes do not die out because the groups lose coordination with each other. Spikes in demonstrated anger at the US in Korea end for 1 of 2 reasons:

1. They simply peter out. The issue doesn't touch a raw enough nerve, or the society just isn't a right enough mood. The society gets to a point that it feels it has stoked nationalism enough in a masochistic way by yet again reminding themselves how the US in Korea might be necessary, but is still evil. They get bored with it, and the move on --- the average Koreans move on, not the anti-US groups. For example, Green Korea and those groups were still thumping putting the US base working in jail 2 and 3 years later. The rest of the society had just gotten bored with it.

The key point being - the spike dies when the anti-US groups (and media) can't get enough average Koreans to do 1 of 2 things: either join in street demonstrations or keep up enough office water-cooler and coffee shop talk to generate more public attention and sell more newspaper and make TV news shows keep up higher ratings or internet traffic humming on the issue.

or

2. The spike gets the fires buring too hot to the point the US press pays attention or the Pentagon starts talking about troops cuts. Then Koreans sense of self-preservation kicks in or their fear of "looking bad" in the global eye.