I believe in the Power of the Status Quo in general. Change - especially big change - is often resisted.

I have long believed the power of the status quo in the US-SK relationship would roll on far into the future as long as North Korea remained above collapse.

However, at no other time in the past, as long as I have been paying attention to Korea (since 1995), things are clearly on a tight-rope --- teetering in any direction.

I will cover the latest protest videos soon (7 April 2006), but a few notes in the press today made me want to post this item now.

First was the Joongang Daily shooting another warning to the anti-US groups, calling out regular Koreans to add a voice against them, and telling the government it had better get off its ass and do something ---- to prevent the anti-US groups from convincing Donald Rumsfeld it is safe to pull out much more than the 1/4th of USFK forces already slated to leave forever.

The other was an editorial in the Chosun Daily that showed how President Roh's key base of support is angry with him for not keeping up with his anti-US / ultra-nationalistic "progressive" mind-set he activiely promoted until the 2nd year of his presidency.

There is so much at play in conflicting currents in South Korea and connected to the US relationship right now -- it is hard to know where best to begin.

Some will say anti-US feeling is "on the rise" in South Korea with this new round of protests. They always say that. I've been finding it back into the 1960s.

Others will point at the editorials condemning the protests and say that things are getting better (compared to what they saw in the media in the orgy of hate in 2002).

Both are wrong. Nothing has changed in the Korean part of Korean society.

The majority of the society has always (at least since the late 1970s) enjoyed disliking the United States in Korea but also feared losing its protection (and the US consumer market).

It is the definition of ------ Necessary Evil.

That is still the main thought today.

But, there is something very different at play right now that is putting the alliance on the verge of collapse - for real.

The United States government has shown beyond a shadow of doubt ---- it wants the USFK posture to change - no matter what.

Discussions like the Land Partnership Plan have gone on for decades. The LPP itself goes back to the 1990s if not 1980s.

Yongsan's removal was negociated in the 1980s and inked in the early 1990s and re-inked in the late 1990s and re-inked in the early 2000s.

And that has been the norm.

Anything Korean society and/or the government did not like was agreed to --- then delayed to death.

(The US Embassy was also slated to move in an agreement in the late 1980s and is still talked about a couple times a year but has gone nowhere).

When the US government and USFK started saying it was going to implement the LPP in 2000, I didn't hold my breathe. When it started closing some bases in 2001, I found it interesting but not a tipping point.

2002 was a tipping point. The war in Iraq, the orgy of anti-US activity, and other things clearly led to signs from the US that it was going to put the LPP into action and move troops off the DMZ to positions south of the Han --- even if those positions turned out to be Guam or Texas if South Korea tried to delay them to death again.

The Korean media and people who pay attention clearly understand a new day has dawned. That is why they want to avoid even 10% of the type of activity they ACTIVELY ENCOURAGED (BIG F-ing TIME) in 2002 by putting pressure on the anti-US groups.

This could mean the Pyongtaek expansion will go through and the LPP put into effect without too much trouble.

I would not place money on that wager even with great odds given to me.

Because it will be too easy to delay all base plans.

We have already seen heavy farming equipment marched out as a protest tool.

When the time comes, the anti-US leaders will use those vehicles, and anything else it thinks will work, to block base construction as much as they can.

Because even if it draws a rebuke from Korean society that doesn't want to face NK alone or pay for beefing up the SK military ----

------these groups know it could influence US government planners.

Other key things at play are how the society has for so long (decades) loved to ***** about the US in Korea over THESE EXACT SAME ISSUE----

US bases and environmental "crimes" ----- US bases occupying "prime real estate" -- those bases having been set up (in the Korean War for the most part) without the "permission" of the Korean government/people ---- US Base Camp Towns being disgusting places for "prostitution" and where the "ugly American" loves to go and abuse local Koreans ----- GI crimes rampant around bases -------- the US military "forcing" the Korean government to trod all over "the little people" ----- and so on.

There are other equally key things at play that all run into each other.

The Chosun Daily editorial give some mention to them.

The FTA touches off all those "neo-colonization" theories South Korean society (especially educated Korean society) loves to think about.

You really needed to be in Korea in 1997-1998 to see how much the society decided to blame the United States for Korea's need to ask for an IMF bailout when the Korean economy tanked.

There has been a whole cottage industry in university literature (and beyond) devoted to how the IMF "colonization" of Korea was such a horror and has set the stage to destory Korea's economic well being in the future.

None of this thought is new. It has just never controlled the Blue House before.

And since President Roh was a long time champion of such ideas, before he became president, his key supporters thought he would push those items.

And he has made some notes like that, but in the end, he has decided Korea needs the US at least for now and/or that his people do not have enough controlling power in the government to make such dramatic changes.

What is important --- after giving this backgrounder ---- is this ---

----the FTA negociations will go on for months and months --------

which means they will be continually touching on sore spots in Korean society.

The "screen quota" is one of the big ones already at play.
You already have very, very high profile stars in Korean TV and movies out yelling about the FTA and bully American and neo-cultural imperialism.

Rice farmers are already out. They have been out a few times a year for many years. And the FTA talks will just throw a lot of fuel on that fire.

And look at Pyongtaek ----- the rice and farming issue has already been successfully melted together in the base expansion item.

Let me cut this short after having already gone too long by saying this ---- which I know to be the ABSOLUTE truth ------

The only thing holding things down in South Korean society right now is Donald Rumsfeld and US talk of pulling out more than 1/4th of the troops.

If the US were not downsizing USFK and talking about doing more if things seem like they are not good in Korea -------------

--------South Korean society as a whole would have already jumped up and down on the LPP with all its national feet.

They would have been screaming in the streets and in the National Assembly and the Blue House and at the office water cooler.

Every issue connected to the base expansion and consolidation effort ---- is one in which the society has shown over and over it loves to use to foment anti-US thought.

But -------- even though the like to dislike the US in Korea ------- the one other item (fear of losing USFK (prematurely) ----- has equal weight to all those other items combined.

Anytime they fear losing USFK, anti-Americanism is supposed to go under the rug until it is safe to get back to things as usual.

But, as long as the US is driving hard to make reformation of USFK a reality, things will NOT get back to the normal routine.

That is why we are teetering on the edge of ruin in the US-SK alliance.

Those who want USFK out do not need to be very strong to cause significant delays in base consolidation and relocation.

The society itself is not used to hiding anti-US thought for months and months on end. Turtule mode isn't designed to last that long.

Every issue connected to base consolidtation ---- execpt one --- is pulling Korean society to vent against USFK

but that one issue ------ actually losing USFK ----- is causing high anxiety.

There are SO MANY different ways this could go in the coming months.

I can't lean one way or another.

But, judging by the videos from today's protests ----- where the government sent in people to cut the water supply to the rice fields and tear up the roads ------

expect the return of significantly violent protests at any time.

If they do not return within 2 weeks ---- I will be utterly amazed....

(The death of the alliance as it has been known has been a real choice before today

That was the case somewhat in the early 1990s when Sen Sam Nunn and some others talked about getting out of SK.

It was very close to happening in the late 1970s when Carter wanted troops out.

It was close to happening in the early 1970s when Nixon pulled a large chung of USFK out and talked about removing more.)

One of the biggest problems is an image problem. This has been enhanced over the years and passed down to many of the younger Koreans without them questioning the source or positive proof. There is not a lot the military command can do as they are hamstrung both by the administration and by Congress. I hope your observations actually get to those who have the power to actually facilitate real action.

Really enjoy your post as they are very thought provoking.

__________________
Just my humble opinion!

One of the biggest problems is an image problem. This has been enhanced over the years and passed down to many of the younger Koreans without them questioning the source or positive proof. There is not a lot the military command can do as they are hamstrung both by the administration and by Congress. I hope your observations actually get to those who have the power to actually facilitate real action.

Really enjoy your posts as they are very thought provoking.

__________________
Just my humble opinion!