There were a couple of notes in the different English language press and Stars and Stripes about the government's move to send in regular military units to stop the obstruction of base expansion.

They mentioned the plan to build a fence around the construction area. That always made sense but has somewhat limited effectiveness. If I were The Priest, I could use a small number of dedicated university and other protest groups and delay construction through a wide variety of means.

The only method I think that might, and only might, swing things away from the anti-US groups favor is to hit them in the wallet.

Locking the Priest up would help. My wild guess after seeing how much he likes to be in the spot light and Korean society's typical leader culture, I would bet if he were taken out of the picture for significant portions of time, nobody would be able to fill his shoes and organize and motivate people the way he does.

It would also shift focus to him in lock up and court and hearings and whatever they can do to him within reason through the legal system.

I do not advocate bending the laws or proceedure just to shut him up --- but since he has routinely broken the law and led others to do so for many years -- like base breakins and violent protests ----- constantly giving him a pass on all this has always been a VERY BAD idea.

There will be no significant "martyr" value with him ---
1. His faithful are already fanatical.
2. His being arrested isn't going to fill the huge divide between him and the bulk of the rest of Korean society on when USFK should get out --- he says "now" they say "eventually" --- his being arrested again and again and held for a couple of days and fined significantly each time is not going to change the "eventually" social mindset.

But, taking into custody and applying fines again and again and again and again to a large chunk of the protesters MIGHT have a useful impact.

It is hard to guess at how much ---- because I was very suprised a couple of months ago to hear that the "progressive" Korea Teachers Union, that loves to teach about how terrible US is for Korea and the World, has the biggest monetary war chest of any labor org. Amazing....

So I think if The Priest needed to load up on some cash to finance Pyongtaek Protests beyond the norm ---- he would most likely have a stash of North Korean "super note" $100 bills or could order them delivered.

But, if the number of people fined is large ---- and they are fined each time they violate the law in these protests ---- it could make effective base construction obstruction too cost prohibitive.

Perhaps more likely ---- it might convince a good number of the more regular Koreans (more like mainstream society) to give up directly supporting The Priest's typical protest methods.

The die hards will be there no matter what and would jump off the Brooklyn Bridge if he asked ---

but the large margin of Koreans - I believe - join in with him and those like him at different times for different reasons than really wanting to "make a difference."

The protests swell to truly impressive sizes mostly when Korean pride or nationalism is stirred up -- by a US related event or something completely out of the ballpark - like the great showing at the 2002 World Cup Korea co-hosted.

In short, the larger protests are a result of ---- more average Koreans feeling like it is a good time to exercise pent up anti-US demons.

Causing them to have to sit in a jail cell or make-shift detention area until paperwork is processed and someone comes to bail them out will make the call on whether it is a good time or no lean away from The Priest.

If they have to pay for the fine(s) out of their own pocket, it will make them even less inclined to join in with the anti-US activities.

But, I haven't heard anything about the Korean government moving in this direction.

Instead, we hear they are sending in the military.

Meanwhile, some 1,000 leaflets comparing protests against the base to the 1980 Gwangju Democratic Uprising have been distributed in Pyeongtaek. Under the title of “Pyeongtaek May Become a Second Gwangju,” the leaflets demand, “The defense minister should resign because he defines the people of Pyeongtaek as enemies.” It is unclear who distributed them.

The ministry says even if it mobilizes military forces to build the fence, they will not be allowed to carry batons and shields. “They will be unarmed and have construction equipment only, so they will not confront residents there directly,” it added.

It was beyond easy to predict Kwanju was going to be on the tip of everyone's tounge --- including mainstream society --- when the decision to send in military units was announced.

Nobody will believe it can happen again. No. It is not that kind of memory. But, it will conjure up memories of authoritarian rule and thus any clashes with the military units will tend to swing things more toward The Priest's favor.

Which I give it a 25% chance that was the idea all along....

As I said yesterday ---- with so many thousands of riot police experienced and trained stationed across the land ---- why bring in military units? Why haven't the bulk of the riot police units been sent to Pyongtaek in the first place?

OK --- sending in the engineers makes sense. But, that was not the only type of unit mentioned the other day.

The idea these soldiers won't be invoved in clashes is also highly far fetched.

And as noted, such clashes were bound to call up memories of Kwangju.

And who is sending the soldiers to bring up those memories?

Roh and his top people were all in the geneneration that had its heyday fighting (literally) authoritarian rule in the streets. Roh even worked to get more people to demand USFK leave. Since he was elected, there have been a string of leaks and quotes in the press from his very top and closest people saying everything bad that has happened to Korea was caused in some significant ways by US interference in Korea's affairs.

These are also the guys who are running for local elections now and will be running for the Blue House next year when the presidential elections are held.

And into this picture we have two interesting things coming ---

1. Long, drawn out FTA negociations between SK and the US --- and we have already seen close aides and ministers of Roh gain attention by attacking the administration for going into the talks.

Thus --- staring these negociations that will run this year and well into the next is going to bring to public attention ----- MANY of the core ideas Uri Party was founded on (Roh's party).

It will make the "progressive"'s Talking Points frequently the lead story on the network nightly news.

It is great for them to have this issue out like that.

2. Now these former dissidents who were jailed and sometimes beaten themselves in the 1970s and 80s are in charge and are sending -----

----not all avalilable riot police to Pyongtaek -- but military units.....

????

You coudl say this represents a natural change of heart once making the transition from *****ing about those in power to being the ones in power and having to make the nation run.....

.....but...........there are too many signs Roh and crew have not changed their heart.

I would be the vast majority would say it is not time for the US to leave just yet -------

-----------but there is absolutely no way I believe Roh and his top advisors ----

have decided now that they are in positions of responsibility and power they must do things like send in the military.

I just can't picture that ---- not when there should be enough riot police spreadout in nation that can be pooled together.

So the only other thing I can think of that makes sense is that ----

they want the clashes with regular soldiers to remind people of the past in which all these Uri hopefuls "fought the good fight"........

I am trying to remember the Kwanju protests but I do remember that they were for a totally different reason and were not related to the US Military. In truth, the protest should be about the government taking land so businesses can profit off the land in Yongson.
In part of his ranting the Priest did insinuate that part of this is about the people who have worked and lived on this land being stripped of their livelihood (Farming) and there is not enough compensation for the land and no compensation for loss of job. With the Cal Rosé rice company able to under cut Korean Rice prices and, actually
I have been told the rice is better by others, andthat the government sould be trying to help the rice growers unite so that they could form a coop and farm on a large scale and compete, much like the large scale farming that has replaced the small farmer here.

__________________
Just my humble opinion!

Good to see you back in full battle gear! Always enjoy your thoughts!

These days the climate appears much different to me. I think the Farmers have a legitimate *****. Not because their land is being taken by their government, but because they are not being compensated fairly. Progress is inevitable. But they can't beat city hall, and they know it. There is no great rallying behind the farmers. The Priest is not a big player. This time I predict the farmers will make a show, but will not be able to put up much of a showing. I suspect the presence of the military will cause them to give in. The usual four or five women will jump up and get hurt and get some photo time in the paper, but as far as protests go- it will fizzle. We'll see.

The Priest isn't a small time player for 2 reasons:
1. He has the student unions behind him.
2. He has organized labor behind him.

Those are the shock troops, and they are a very large pool of protesters whether they represent a small percentage of the population or not.

The unions throw their lot in with the university student groups who march to the orders of people like the priest not too frequently, but they do it enough to count ----

---- and the unions will back these farmers to generate momentum against the Rice Market Opening and the FTA talks and for spill-over into things like GM-Hyundai (I think it is).

On the compensation, I leave it as a very open question whether the farmers are being "justly compensated" or not.

I haven't been digging, but I've seen enough, and it was easy to predict, the numbers were going to be all over the place -- high and low -- from people who "know" what the compensation being offered is and what "fair market value" are.

Also, my wife's family worried a good bit each time they were moved the last two years - who wouldn't. But, each time they got enough for the houses to buy another (they did not own the land either time but did the houses). And they are lower income people.

Until I am proven wrong, it is my firm hunch that the compensation offered the farmers is inline or better than they would have gotten had this been done to build a super-train extension or a broader highway or another Hyundai or Samsung apartment complex to expand the suburbs.