A Chosun Daily article about 24 out of 27 US bases having above the acceptable level of pollution touches on what I wrote yesterday --- about the next two years being filled with hot button items - easy for the anti-US groups to exploit - that could very well be pushing on the US in Korea at the exact same time the US is thinking about leaving.

The two countries failed to reach agreement on the cleanup in the eighth round of Security Policy Initiative (SPI) meetings on May 25. The U.S. claimed there was no pollution reaching the level of "known, imminent and substantial endangerment" specified under a Memorandum of Special Understanding on Environmental Protection, and therefore no obligation for it to clean up the bases. However, Korea has maintained the stance that they should decide on the level of cleanups through bilateral discussions, as contamination exceeds the acceptable level at most bases.

Pyongtaek is going on --- a big item --- but also part of the consolidation and closing down of many USFK bases.

And in each place a base needs to expand to take on new units -- you wil have fertile ground for anti-US agitation.

And at each base that closes - you will have fertile ground for agitation.

Plus, you have a big presidential election next year including one party - the current ruling party - that might not survive if it does not win. (It might not even make it to polling day if it does badly in the local elections today.)

It is a safe bet ---- during the election cycle ---- you will hear talk of revising the SOFA to get tougher on the GI Crimes you know will happen at some point during the year --- and on the environmental side.

We already saw yesterday the US and SK negociators failed completely, it seems, to narrow differences on the environmental issue.

Over at a couple of the expat Korea related blogs, one soldier or ex-soldier familiar with the Yongsan plans said he is convinced, from having watched the discussions, that the parts of Yongsan the US military is slated to keep in the agreement is going to be used as a big bone of contention in the elections next year --- with a drive to have USFK give up every piece of land there.

The reason the politicians are going to use these issues in the election is --

--- they play well in the society. Evil SOFA. GI Criminals. Uncle Polluter. And so on....

And it has never made a bit of a difference that common sense, previous agreements, and disdain for double standards should be against the society as a whole using such issues to keep the collective ill-will always luke warm with periodic spikes in intense heat.

It will not matter at all to Korean society that ----- if they were to use the same standards ---- and go to any industrial area in Korea --- and test the soil and water samples around Hyundai factories, the steel makers, the ship builders, and so on ----------- they will find at least as much pollution as they do at US bases.

Everybody knows Korean pollution standards lagged behind the rest of the OECD as Korea's industry rapidly grew.

There has been a growing awareness of the need to protect the environment -- including pressuring Korea's top industry leaders to do better.

But, nothing is done to the Korean chaebol similar to the standard they say they want to hold USFK to.

I faded out in my project to do with the Korean TV media what I did with the English language press, but what I found initially was the same.

In this review -

--I searched for articles related to specific and general examples of USFK pollution covered by the Korean press. And I searched for articles related to specific examples of Korean polluters.

What I found was what I already knew ----

The Korean press does run a fair amount of stories about how this stream or that mountain is polluted or how the air in this city is bad.

But, it hardly ever mentions who is doing the polluting --- unless it is USFK.

They might throw in an article or two about small businesses being guilty, but they almost never attack the big guys --- unless it is USFK.

That is exactly what I found in the initial look into KBS news' coverage. One of them was a classic....(I might have reported this already, but it is worth a repeat in connection to the news today and what we can expect the next 2 years)

they talked with a specialist about the stunted tree growth near this industrial city.

They showed shots of the specialist and reporter in a grove on a mountain.

They also showed some very long shots of the industrial parks in the vally below ----- but they never named whose factories they were.

I had to go online and search for the city's name to find out it is known as a Hyundai town......

That is what the US in Korea is up against with the environmental issue.

It is very fertile ground for agitation. It has been since 2000.

And it will be picked at continuously the rest of this year and the whole of next year at least.

It will pick up steam next year as the election draws near.

And lastly ----- the reason this is key --- rather than being the usual anti-US norm is -----

it will be touching on BIG TIME MONEY.

We are not talking any more about this or that pollution problem on bases that aren't going anywhere.

We are no longer just taking pot shots at bases for the fun of it.

We are dealing with USFK in transition.

We are dealing with bases that are going to close down.

Meaning ----- something is going to have to be done.

With or without an agreement ----- the land is going to be handed over or sit unused (which is already happening at some bases already vacated).

And the Korean government can't just live with no agreement.

Something is going to have to be worked out.

Which means -------- this issue is going to come to a head sometime within the next two years.

Heated negociations are going to have to take place --- and that means Korean society is going to rant about them.

And no deal struck and no implimentation of any agreement is going to be good enough.

The Korean government is going to be pressured for failing to "stand up to" the US whatever it does.

And the US is going to be ripped for having no regard for Korean people whatsoever.

And all this pressure on the Korean government to "get tough" with Uncle Polluter is going to translate into ------

------higher costs for the US side.

Which could advance the cause of those in the Pentagon and US government who want out of South Korea anyway........

The only questoin is ----- will there be a short intense period for this ---- or will it be spread out over such a length of time that it never gets to really snowball into a spike in demonstrated anger on the scale of 2000?

Whatever the case ------

as I noted yesterday -----

This is just but O-N-E of the big ticket items that will be in play the next two years.

You certainly have done some research, as best you can from a distance, and your predictions seem to not bode well for the USFK. I am not privy to any more information than you are, I suspect, except to have a feel for the local temperature. I am going to predict that a more temperate political climate will evolve, and that there will be less turmoil than you predict. Of course predicting the future is not easy. Yet I see negligible anti-Americanism in local protests. Elections and summer heat bring out the worst in all countries.
I don't feel an undercurrent of disagreement will evolve from present talks with the Korean government. Yes, of course, it would be good for both countries if South Korea could feel confident of standing alone against the impending Yellow Peril that will inevitably threaten in the future. I think that nationalism will bow to common sense, and they will continue to lean on us as their big brother. At the same time, they can squeeze out as much money as possible from our seeemingly unlimited coffers, and demand compensation for "Pollution". If the time comes when the US feels it is no longer to our advantage to remain in Korea, we will leave. If the new political climate evolving in Japan becomes a sweeter deal, it could happen sooner than even I suspect.