I predict this is not going to be a good year for the US in Korea. Unlike my other guesses at the future, I am pretty confident about this one. There are too many things lining up.

It is obvious the US is not going to let the Yongsan HQ move to Pyongtaek sit idle for 5 or 10 more years. They have already been making moves in the direction and elsewhere in the Land Partnership Plan. Even if the move is not completed by 2008 as scheduled, to attempt to reach that goal, major construction will have to start this year, and that will be a large, long, fertile ground for the usual anti-US groups. It is such an easy issue for them to score points with in average Korean society, it will be like hitting a beachball off a tee.

Tied up with the expansion of Pyongtaek will be the turning over of Yongsan (as well as other USFK bases around the nation) ---- and the pollution issue will be another gold mine for the anti-US groups. They have shown frequently the last 5 to 8 years they can get much play in the Korean press and public with simple soil contamination problems common to anywhere fuel tanks have been located for decades.

There is 0% chance Green Korea will not find plenty of the same type of "environmental crimes" it has gotten the public to pay attention to at Camp Long and Eagle in Wonju, Yongsan, and even the US Embassy. We are already seeing this in the news today.

In the US, it also seems clear the White House is giving up on waiting for China and South Korea to lose patience with North Korea. It seems Bush is going to be serious this year in pushing North Korea on things it does wrong. We've seen movement on the Human Rights front and on money laundering.

Beating up on North Korea is so easy for the US, it is like hitting a ball off a tee too. If the US wants to find things to jump on the North about, there are plenty to choose from.

And we have seen the last few weeks, the Blue House is equally determined to defend Pyongyang. President Roh threw down the gauntlet last week, and the US seemed perfectly satisfied with that. There are good signs both are ready to butt heads.

2007 is an election year in Korea, and we are already seeing the Uri party candidates preparing for it, and the top three so far have very good anti-US credintials along the lines of the current President Roh. \

And Roh has more than likely set the tone that will be followed until the election. He made a speech saying if the US tries to pressure Pyongyang, South Korea will be unhappy and work against it. He also took up the call for splitting war time command between US and South Korean troops, something he backed off of early in his term when South Korea was worried about damaging the alliance at the end of the 2002 orgy of hate.

So, I doubt any of the Uri party front runners are going to be afraid to be defiant with the US if Roh is coming out swinging now.

Then there was news the other day that a 2nd NK-SK Summit will probably happen this year.

It was the 1st summit in 2000 that made Korea feel so proud of itself, it took up a long list of negative issues against USFK and the US like rolling thunder month after month.

It is unlikely the same euphoria about peace and unification being at hand will repeat itself with summit II, but it will give a good bit of support to Roh and Uri for a tougher stance against Washington.

FTA negociations are already underway, and we have seen Korean society is willing to defend the farmers and labor unions even when they use violence like in Hong Kong or Pusan with the APEC summit.

There will also be the inevitable GI crimes at different points in the year as well ---- whether as serious as murder or as common as a street altercation.

And the last point ----- what happens at times like this is each issue bleeds into the other. If any one of the bigger issues (like Pyongtaek expasion) catches the imagination of the bulk of the people, every little thing else will be like dropping fuel on the fire.

That was how it came down in 2000 and in 2002.

And 2006 already has a couple of really big, fundamental issues scheduled.

The anti-US NGOs will not have to look hard for a cause to champion this year.....

This is also the year of the new USFK/UN/CFC commander. Now that Gen LaPorte is gone, there may be some new policies instated that the Koreans don't like.

North Korea has been extremely lucky over the years IMHO. This is yet another year where America is distracted by a larger threat: Iran. As long as Iran is in the forefront, North Korea will be able to delay the Six-Party Talks as South Korea continues on the course of appeasement. I think 9-11 was a blessing for North Korea because it has forced President Bush to focus on Iraq, Afghanistan and other Islamic nations. Now Europe is also distracted with Iran and internal Islamic strive and has no time for North Korea.

2006 will be another year North Korea slips under the radar and thousands more die of starvation.

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Bush appointing a NK Human Rights Envoy and the sanctions for money laundering could be a sign the Bush administration is going to move away from the 6 Party Talks as they have been known so far.

For the past few years, the US pushed the 6 Party Talks as a way to get all the players who would be involved in a deal together to discuss the issue. The US hope was China and South Korea at the table, and the fact of the nuke threat and other bad things the North does, would lead them to put pressure on North Korea to get a deal to dismantle the the nuke programs rather than a mothballing of the big one and unverification on the smaller one or others as well.

But, the years have shown South Korea is firmly in North Korea's corner and China has not been willing to go beyond some nudges. And the US has shown it is unwilling to push seriously China or South Korea to pressure the North --- and unlikely either would do so enough to make North Korea compromise to any extent that would make it worthwhile for the US to give the kind of economic concessions it will demand.

In short, the 6 Party Talks have become nothing but a forum. They are not real negociating summits.

Bush naming a NKHR envoy was mandated by Congress, so it isn't a clear sign the US is announcing it has given up on the 6 party talks as a real mechanism. But, the sanctions on money laundering point in that direction.

We will see over the coming months if the US is willing to call the 6 party talks what they are or keep pretending there is hope in them.

If they keep saying they have faith in them, then it will be business as usual.

If they make moves to counter other illegal activities by the North in an open manner, it will start to show us the US is going to push the North and South Korea can cry about it all they want.