There was a big note today in the press that could give another big indiccation about what temperature the elections this year and next are going to take.

South Korea's Unification Ministry on Sunday denounced U.S. President George W. Bush's special envoy for human rights in North Korea, accusing him of intervening in Seoul's internal affairs and harboring prejudiced and distorted views towards inter-Korean relations.

That is always good for a few votes. It at least rings true to some small to large extent in most Korean's ears.

And it was used always --- Park Chung Hee did it from time to time when negociating with the US and/or needing to shore up his support at home. Playing a type of "race" card (call it a "nationalism" - especially a "hermit kingdom nationalism" card) has been a practiced by both conservative and liberal leadership in the society with the other side sometimes agreeing but more often than that disagreeing ---- sometimes for real party/opinion reasons, sometimes just for pure politics.

``Jay Lefkowitz, who represents an anti-North Korean hard-line group in Washington, seems to be trying to put a brake on the mood of inter-Korean reconciliation,....

That is strong stuff. Too strong to be by chance or off the top of his head.

Neo-con neocon neocon is a frequent low level rally cry to put up a stance against the US in general. When the Democrats get the White House back, it will be neo-liberalism again.

The kicker is the the line about "inter-Korean reconciliation". "Unification" is a better card to play (since 2000 but somewhat effective before then) in either putting pressure on the US (by either Korean party(ies)) or putting it on the conservatives in Korean society.

It is especially used by the "progressive" anti-US groups and minority political segments. But....

``While speaking on human rights, he just turned a blind eye to the difficult situation the North Korean people are now facing,’’ the official told a closed briefing. ``It is an inhumane and anti-human rights attitude.’’

I take this to mean ---- this is the official Blue House policy thought.
I take it to mean Roh and crew sent this man out with the clear message that he was to "get tough" with the US on its North Korea policy.

You can look at this as a response to the change in policy in the US in relation to accepting NK Refugees into America and before that the strong actions against the overseas banks NK uses to funnel its illegal funds.

True.

But, I am pretty sure it is also geared toward the election cycle.

I've already said I give it at least a 50/50 chance the FTA talks were set up by the Roh administration to be a great political selling tool for the Uri Party hopefuls ----- something they can rally at least their "progressive" base of support behind and pull in a good number of more average Korean voters ----

because the terrible effects of "Bully America" on the Korean economy -- "interfering" in Korea's "domestic affairs" by trying to "fling open" the car market or the rice market or the movie market and so on --- plays well in Korean society as a whole.

It seems now they are going to try to gain votes by pulling on the "anti-unification" strings too ---- which has historically sold less, perhaps, but still -------- a large chunk of Koreans have felt (at varying levels of feeling) that the US "wants" the 2 Korea's seperate, because given how South Korea created the Miracle on the Han (all alone and against all odds - including "American pressure"), if they were unified, Korea could top Japan's economy and maybe even be #1.

Keep in mind ---- it is not hard for a good number of Koreans to believe this and at the same time, at other times, tell you how the relationship with the US helped make the Miracle on the Han because of the consumer market and American shopping habits and the developmental assistance.

It just depends on how nationalistic the person is feeling that day.
And by person I also mean the society as a whole.

What I mean is --- at certain times, if the Korean media puts out a "bully America" story and the people are ready to entertain it -- they can spend days if not a week or more talking about it with each other to a very significant extent. Then later, say if the US alliance looks a little shaky or Hillary Clinton is talking bad about Korea, rather than respond by attacking her (which is an option), the media might run a story on the benefits of the US-SK trade relations ---- with the point of saying, "Be nice" and the talk around the office might be favorable to the US - but usually just nixing the bad talk (for awhile).

Anyway --- this is all an attempt to let those who are not so familiar with Korean adult society know that the "anti-unification" card is not new and does get play in the society.

The official made the remarks while commenting on Lefkowitz's allegation in his contribution to the Wall Street Journal that humanitarian assistance to the North Korean people should be avoided without a guarantee of transparency in its distribution.

Lefkowitz also claimed that by channeling large amounts of unmonitored aid to North Korea, some governments may actually worsen matters and unwittingly help prop up the regime.

This another key to what seems to be happening.

Why?

Because nothing this article says Lefkowitz says is new.

Different levels of the US government - and different think-tank members writing articles in the NY Times or Washington Post - have been saying stuff like this for a couple of years.

So, why pounce on it now?

Like I wrote above, one reason is probably an effort to put a dent in the new pressure being put on North Korea by the US.

Which means to dent the pressure SK is feeling because it is against pressure on the North.

But, I also believe the reasons this message is so clear, strong, and direct right now is ----

------it will help Uri Party in both electoins --- the local and regional ones right now and the presidential one next year.

What this means for the US in Korea is the 2nd point of this post.

It means --------- more than likely

difficult things will be made more difficult.

It means Pyongtaek will not see a strong effort by the administration to make the expansion of the base go as smoothly as possible --- both in Pyongtaek but also in the public mind.

It means the FTA talks will probably come off worse than they were already slated to happen.

It means administration support in public on the issue of base hand-overs isn't going to happen much. It means it would not be a suprise if the "environmental crimes" charge as these bases are handed over very well could be directed in part by the administration.

It means -----

The administration is most likely showing right now it is going to put forward a policy of "getting tough" with "The US in Korea" ---

vaguely along the lines of Roh declaring diplomatic war with Japan over Dokto.

It is most likely a big sign ---- Uri Party and the Roh administration are going to use the "Touch Guy for the Nation's Good" strategy this year and next.

That is not good if you are the US in Korea......

The Korea Times editorial desk also got into the act --- which if other papers did as well --- it is usually a sign that adults will be talking about it a good bit too.

A more pointed criticism came from Jay Lefkowicz, U.S. special envoy on North Korean human rights. But his comment on the Kaesong Industrial Complex appears either somewhat off the point or skewed by his seemingly arbitrary standards. North Korean laborers taking part in inter-Korean economic cooperation projects are receiving wages higher than average workers there. Also, the U.S. official's taking issue with South Korea's insufficient monitoring of economic aids smacked of meddling in Seoul's internal affairs.

The "internal affairs" nationalism is a society-wide staple.

It may just be coincidence but the Los Angeles Immigration Court's provision of political asylum to a former North Korean military officer also came at a delicate moment. The move must have embarrassed Seoul, as it is on precondition that the South Korean government might repatriate him back to the North.

Hyper-sensitivity is another feature.

Right now, the whole society is anti-Japan crazy and it will be hard to shift the focus much onto the US....

....for now....

but, when the stuff with Dokto settles down --- what will be out there?

FTA, rice market, movie market, Pyongtaek, base clean up, and big elections.....

Put on your hard hats......

I've been saying that since last summer, but I've also been waiting for the Land Partnership Plan and Yongsan move since 2000 ----

the time has arrived - if you consider "the time" to be stretched out until the end of next years presidential election. The heat will come in spurts, but they will come....

And the level of hate-Japan can be VERY sigificant:

In 2000, the euphoria over the possible end of the Korean Cold War thanks to the unthinkable NK-SK Summit ---- stoked Korea's passions to high highs --- and that EASILY translated into probably the worst period of long anti-US agitation since 1988.

In 2002, the euphoria over Korea's strong showing in the World Cup they co-hosted also easily translated into much greater support for a string of anti-US issues that had stretched back into the Fall of 2001.

In short ------- when Korea's pride swells ---

it usually means anti-US leaders have a much easier time pulling average Koreans into exercising anti-US issues ---

and we have a whole cart load of BIG TICKET items --- HUGE hot button issues --- already scheduled for this year unlike we have seen in a good number of years.

The skies are dark.

How much rain and hail will actually fall and how hard is a guess.

But, the skies are getting blacker by the week.....

Here is part of what I've been talking about concerning how the Government's stance can effect things one way or another:

At the first meeting on Sunday, the two sides agreed to resolve the issue through dialogue. But at the meeting at 5 p.m. yesterday, neither side budged from its stance. The ministry had announced that it would evict residents and protesters in the city in Gyeonggi province from April 27 to May 7, but decided instead to hold the meetings.

The ministry asked residents to stop farming on the site and let a limited number of government officials enter the village to conduct measurements and a geological survey for the transfer. Major General Park Gyeong-seo, a representative of the ministry, said the transfer would start this month because the delay could aggravate relations between South Korea and the United States.

A few days ago, I believe it was someone in the military leadership put out a message that could/should be helpful to make this HUGE transition run more smoothly though it will never be smooth ---

He basically said, "This is in our (Korea's) national interest. If we don't get this done, it will cost us a huge amount of tax payer money and damage our national defense. We shouldn't let groups led by radicals ruin it for all of us."

The man said it in just as plain of language.

It was not the stereotypical "blood alliance" talk that is such a broken record it means virtually nothing 90% of the time though it is marched out quiet a big when forced to talk about the alliance with the press.

But ---- this also frequent type of saying

because the delay could aggravate relations between South Korea and the United States.

Actually means to a large chunk of the population ---

"If we don't do what they want - America will bully us yet again. Alas, we have no choice.....What can we do against such a power?"

I don't believe the military leadership means it that way, but it is just so ingrained in the national mind-set, that is what it means.

If the Korean government had used strong, but lawful methods to handle the initial protests --- fining large numbers of the protesters who are breaking the law and such ----- AND ----

-----if the Roh administration had put out a strong message again and again like that limited example given the other day --- saying what basically most Koreans accept anyway ----

----that the allinace benefits both sides. Korea's defense will be hurt if changes aren't made. It will cost Korea much more if the changes aren't made. The farmers and residents are being compensated by measures X,Y, and Z. This is good for the nation - and so on -----

things might have been better than they are going to be.

If the frequent message is, "What can we do about it? In the face of US pressure, we have no choice......We must please (kowtow) to them...."
which many will tack on "even if it means being cruel to the weakest and poorest of our own."

they will likely be worse.....

I believe South Korea could easily defend itself ------ if it had the national will to do so.

It has a much larger population. It's population is healthy.

It has massive industry and a massive economy compared to most nations -- compared to a broken down North Korea - it is just that much more so.

SK can build or buy the military hardware it needs and all that goes into keeping it at an adequate condition of readiness.

There are only two intertwined things keeping SK from making its own defense: their 50 years of mandatory military service makes starting a professional volunteer army very difficult because nobody wants to serve in it.

Tied to this is the fact they would have to spend MAJOR dollars to totally upgrade the quality of life for service members - which they haven't done much before because nobody had a choice whether to serve or not.

And that gets to the real bottom line ----- you see this every year in spats of news coverage when the topic of defense costs comes up ---

The society knows how much of a national (tax payer) budget shift getting rid of USFK would take ---

and every time someone starts spouting about "self-defense" --- like they really mean it ----- the media and others pounce by throwing out the big numbers of how much it would cost and how other government programs would be cut ------- and the society decides it can put up with the USFK cancer a few years more....

There is really nothing the US can do other than sit there and be verbally berated for the short coming of the Korean Government? We should be use to it as we have not gotten any kind of a thankyou from any counrty we have helped.

Now granted some times we are too into controling as many govt and people can not work under out type of system as they need a single strong controling force (Dictator, Military or Religious or some kind of controling autocratic authority) If you notice it is usually the poor nations with low population education. This is no longer the case with SK as it is with the NK but could South Korea really stand on it's own? Economically I think they have a chance. Militarily, Humm if the US was gone and there was Just the South Korean Military. I think it would quickly be 1 Korea under the North Korean Govt Which is the only way the North will accept reunification. Kim and his father both have stated many times that same fact.

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Just my humble opinion!