Be sure to read the disclaimer at the end of this piece....

Judging by 2 things - well 3 - it seems recent events have left The Priest and core followers between a rock and a hard place -

--but you should know he is not worried.......

Korean society has been trending toward putting more pressure on violent protests off and on for the past year or more.

Korean society is also deathly afraid of having to spend gobs of tax payer money to replace USFK if it should decide to leave if the base reorganization plans fail.

That meant it was an unhill climb for The Priest and other anti-US leaders to get more "average" Koreans on board supporting his protests in body or at least mind.

But, he gave it a shot, and I think there is a good chance the Roh crew tried to help him out ---- if not Roh, then someone in the chain of authority and planning in the departments that could have sent out thousands of riot police instead of regular army soldiers.

But, this does not mean The Priest will move on to other things.

It does not even mean he can't wage an effective resistance in Pyongtaek.

If you watched the Maehyang-ri initial wave of anger, you would have seen that The Priest spent the time and money going to the US to join in with anti-US military bombing range in Puerto Rico protests in DC and I think NY. He also sought to gain pressure points by linking with Japanese activists.

And pressure points is a good way to look at it.

The Priest does not give a single half of a rat's ass about the individual issues he thumps on.

Well, maybe he does, but by looking at how he and the other long time anti-US leaders can be found protesting EVERYTHING UNDER THE SUN that relates to the US position in Korea, it is clear his only goal is to put enough pressure on the US in Korea to get them out.

He adapts his means and message to whatever target audience he feels will help advance the goal -- and he will try to tap multi-audiences at any given time --- but he works night and day all year every year seeking ways to get USFK out and the US "influence" in Korea out too. (economic and social and whatnot).

Why is this important right now?

Because The Priest might be forced to give up (mostly) on winning over average Koreans, but he will not be CLOSE TO giving up on being effective in Pyongtaek.

He - like most other Koreans who pay attention - are worried about what they have been hearing out of the Pentagon since the start of 2003:

They have heard Donald Rumsfeld talk about taking USFK out if Korea wants it.

They have seen him slate 1/4th to leave - which was never part of the over-decades-long negociations in the Land Partnership Plan.

They have heard him talk about fullfilling the US military security obligations with South Korea by using "sea and air assets" --- which at times how he said it could mean air support NOT stationed in Korea (meaning with zero US forces left in country).

For the first time in a long time --- they have watched the US listen to the not infrequent (if you look at things over the decades) demands to regain Korean "national rights" on things ------- and heard the US say, "Sure. Great. We'd love to hand those duties and stuff over to you." and what they are hearing implied in this break in the US trend of saying "no" to such demands is "Gee thanks!! That makes it much more easier for us to leave now!!!).

War time control of Korean forces and handing the DMZ and counter-battery operations over to the Korean military among others are such changes.

So ---------- the key point ------------

The Priest along with millions of other mindful Koreans -----

-----believe the US might be looking for an exit strategy for USFK.

So --- given that The Priest sees the buttons to push in average Korean society aren't available

he will concentrate on gaining the attention of the USFK leaders and hopefully the People in Washington DC.

If he can successfully delay and delay and delay base construction, that will be a very good irritant to USFK and budget makers in the Pentagon.

And I don't think it would take much of an effort or many people to accomplish this mission.

Somewhere in these posts on Pyongtaek over the months, I said I figured the most likely way to limit the anti-US group's options was to quarantine the area where construction is about to start.

That has happened now.

But, they still have to truck in workers and material.

They still have to guard the fence line day and night and get very tough with any sizable protest that can be put together that seeks to break through the fence ------

---and just staging such protests would shut things down for that day at least.

I mean ----- if I sat down for a few hours ----- I could dream up many, many ways to attack the base construction process. Many ways. Most of which would require little man-power.

And ----------------- the Priest has more than enough of such man-power and money. He (and by He I mean all these life-time anti-US leaders -- which number a dozen or so I'd guess) ---- does not need the support of average Koreans.

There are enough radical unversity students. And this time by radical, I mean radical compared to the usual radical anti-US university student union members.

There are enough tried and true, North Korea supporting, technically brain-dead jackasses around the nation who would strip naked and run into a razor wire-laced brickwall for the priest and others.

He has enough to count on even if the government starts locking them up. If they keep them in jail, it will limit the size and frequency of missions he can send out, but he has enough bodies and imagination to use them effectively against base construction ----

not with an eye on stopping it completely -- well, yes and no on that ---

but with an eye on convincing the US to leave sooner rather than later either before or after base construction is completed (if ever).

Next, the university student unions and labor groups will march for him and fight for him even if they are locked up. Locking them up and fining them can cut down on the frequency of events he can stage, but he will always be able to stage some big rallies.

Labor inparticular would probably take being put in jail and fined a lot as a challenge, and they have the muscle in local and regional politics to rise to that challenge if they decide it is worth it --- and I'd give that 50/50.

And what I would look for next over the next few months is The Priest getting more dramatic in his approach ---

with one thing in mind ----

capturing the international presses attention.

I am sure he believes a co-equal method in usefullness for getting USFK out from the American side is to reach past USFK leaders and Pentagon and tap the rest of Washington and the American press on the shoulder and tell them to check out what Korea thinks of them.

The Priest and crew know the only time the US pays attention to the southern half of the Korean peninsula when it does not concern economic news is when heads are being bashed in the street or things are getting out of control.

So, I expect him to try to make things look like they are out of control by staging dramatic events and alerting the foreign press ahead of time.

In fact ------- if you check out www.voiceofpeople.org the last two weeks -

they have started doing something they have not done in a very long time -- probably since 2003 ----

writing out a propaganda piece in English to try to gain international support.

Take a look at them at some of their thinking.

-----Disclaimer----

I can't use the Korean language press much, but from teaching Korean adults and reading the English versions, they often have the same articles just translated into English, and they usually echo the opinons of the editorial pages and reporter bias of the Korean versions. But, the editors of the English versions due seem to drop some key stories that might make Korea look bad to international readers -

For example: last summer when the news came out with the strink of GIs Crimes - like the beer bottle smashing face and drunk teenage dependants smashing a bus window ----- both the English and Korean versions of the press ran stories about 4 or 5 GI crimes and tied them together.

But, the English versions dropped one that was reported in the Korean language press ----- a GI in Inchon tried to go into a bar, and the doorman told him it was for Koreans only and when the GI tried to get in, the GI, doorman, manager, and other worker got into it.

What caused this item to be taboo for the English press was what the parties were quoted as saying in bold words:

It was clear from the qoutes of the Koreans as well as the soldier that this was a case of discrimination. Thus, not good to let non-Koreans hear about.

So, I can't say with any confidence I have a good read on exactly how the Korean media and thus the Korean people are taking the recent events in Pyongtaek.

What I mean is ---- I can't tell if there is not some sub-group of the press and people that are more mainstream than the radicals who are coming out in support of the radicals and not against them.

I also can't tell well if the message in the Korean press is mixed - which would mean it is in the society as well.

And this is the kind of thing I could tell EASILY when I was teaching Korean adults (aged 21-35 generally but some older) but I'm not in Korea now....

You done some serious research on this one. I have a 'what if' question. What if the Vatican would reassign the priest to missionary duty. Would that decrease any momentum?

__________________
BOOM, BOOM. Out goes the Lights

I'm not Catholic and have no idea how they regulate themselves.

I don't very much this would be of concern to any of the higher up authorities in the chain of command in the church beyond Korea.

Also, I can vaguely remember some things about the Priests in China who were set up, I believe, by the government pretty much as puppets for the communist party and government in order to avoid criticism of the suppression of Christianity and other human rights abuses which some Catholic underground and open leaders were telling the world about.

In fact, I think I remember seeing a headline where the Vatican just excommunicated those priests set up by the government.

But, Korean anti-US activity will not grab that much attention to warrant an effort by the Vatican, and I'd guess just like in China, if these Catholic priests leading the anti-US charge (there are more than 1) were told to stop by the Vatican, they would ignore it.

I came across Korea's anti-American bigots hall of shame @http://www.angelfire.com/journal2/uglykorea/hallo ffame.html

It list to different Americans who helped out in anti-American protests. Micah Adler, a former webmaster for www.usacrime.or.kr and Amy Levine, a full time volunteer for Green Korea. "At last report, Amy is back in Korea and working for a new NGO..." Is she or any other Americans currently protesting in the Pyongteak/Anjong-Ri area?

__________________
BOOM, BOOM. Out goes the Lights

Not that I've seen, and they will often promote any outsiders agreeing with them.

My guess is there will probably be some foreigners involved in the Seoul protest this weekend - particularly drawn in as part of opposition to the war in Iraq and the US military in general. Maybe some Americans, but in the protests over the US military the last few years, if you see some foreigners, it is usually some of the immigrant workers from Muslim nations.