[USFK Forums] Who will lead North Korea next? [BBC]

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Who will lead North Korea next?

Wednesday, 15 February 2006, 16:00 GMT

By Sarah Buckley, BBC News,

North Korea celebrates the 64th birthday of its secretive leader Kim Jong-il on Thursday, with marches, exhibitions and a national holiday.

[PHOTO] Some had expected the successor to be announced last year

But for the outside world, anxious about North Korea's nuclear ambitions and economic malaise, Mr Kim's birthdays are a time to think about his succession.

This year is particularly pertinent. Kim Jong-il's father, at 63, had already made it clear his son was the successor and had started manoeuvring him into power.

Now the younger Mr Kim has turned 64, yet there have been no pointers as to the next leader, fuelling speculation he is unsure who to pick, or faces a power struggle behind the scenes.

"I think there's a feeling that there's no obvious successor. It wasn't as clear as it was under Kim Il-sung," said North Korea watcher Paul French.

[PHOTO] KIM'S FAMILY
Kim has several children
His eldest son disgraced himself in Japan
But some believe he is back in favour. Others think a younger boy, Kim Jong-chul, is designated successor
N Korea's secretive first family

Three of Mr Kim's sons could be in the running.
Kim Jong-nam, in his mid 30s, is the most likely if Mr Kim continues the tradition of passing power to the eldest son.

Analysts did believe, however - and some still do - that Kim Jong-nam ruined his chances in 2001, when Japanese officials caught him trying to sneak into Japan using a false passport, an incident which caused severe diplomatic embarrassment to Pyongyang.

But there is some evidence that the eldest son may have been forgiven. Diplomatic sources have told South Korean media that Mr Kim took Kim Jong-nam on a high-profile trip to China last month.

"Some think Kim Jong-nam is back in the frame. At the end of the day, these things get very Confucian and he's the eldest," said Mr French.

There has always been interest in two other sons, however, because they were born to a different woman, said to be Kim Jong-il's favourite consort.

[PHOTO] Kim Jong-il took on the mantle of his late father, Kim Il-sung

The eldest of these is 24-year-old Kim Jong-chul. Little is known about this man, other than that he studied at an international school in Switzerland and is reported to be a fan of US baseball.

According to a Japanese sushi chef who worked for Kim Jong-il for 13 years, the 'Dear Leader' dismissed this son, saying: "He's useless. He's like a girl".

But according to South Korean media reports, his portraits and a slogan saying "Let's build an operation system for comrade Kim Jong-chul" have been hung in Korean Workers' Party (WPK) buildings.

He is believed to work in the propaganda department of the WPK, as Kim Jong-il did before he became leader, but is not known to hold any state position.

By contrast, by the age Kim Jong-il is now, his father Kim Il-sung had already appointed him secretary of party organisation and he was being referred to as "the party centre".

Military option

Because there is no clear successor, analysts are increasingly speculating that a future leader will come from outside the Kim family - possibly from the army.

There is a "large groundswell [of opinion within the army] that the dynasty shouldn't go to the next Kim", said Mr French.

"If it goes to another Kim, he will have to continue the legacy of Kim Jong-il - therefore no economic reform and no progress on the nuclear weapons issue."

Mr French said that China, North Korea's closest ally, was pressing for change on these two fronts, and that Beijing traditionally has close ties with the North Korean military dating back to the 1950-53 Korean War.

Veteran North Korea watcher, Aidan Foster-Carter, mused that the current focus in the official media of the country's "songun" or "military first" philosophy suggested a military man could be next.

[PHOTO] Eldest son Kim Jong-nam may be back in favour

He said that the succession issue should be getting more attention than it is from observers.

"I do think this issue is incredibly important and it is kind of late - by the time Kim Il-sung was Kim Jong-il's age, we had this under way."

"If he had a heart attack tomorrow, what would happen? It's really risky and I don't think there is a plan in place."

Kim Il-sung lived until he was 82, suggesting Kim Jong-il may have several more years of leadership yet, but Mr French pointed out that the portly Hennessey connoisseur is not in robust a health as his father was at this age.

Jim Hoare, a former UK diplomat in North Korea, said that it did not really matter who took over next.

"I'm always amused by the concern for North Korean constitutional niceties," he said, pointing out that Kim Jong-il's dead father is still designated 'eternal leader'.

"There is no absolute need to settle the succession [now] because the system's not going to change."


(END)