The BBC has put out an interesting article title
Who will lead North Korea next?
This is a valid question! Kim Jong-il is not a young pup! He is celebrating his 64th birthday next Thursday and who knows what kind of medical problems he may have. This is also a excellent point:
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This year is particularly pertinent. Kim Jong-il's father, at 63, had already made it clear his son was the successor and had started maneuvering him into power.
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Could there be pressure for him to name a successor or phase into retirement? Here are some of the options.
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Three of Mr Kim's sons could be in the running. If Mr Kim continues the tradition of passing power to the eldest son, Kim Jong-nam, in his mid 30s, would succeed. However, analysts did believe - and some still do - that Kim Jong-nam ruined his chances in 2001, when Japanese officials caught him trying to sneak into Japan using a false passport, an incident which caused severe diplomatic embarrassment to Pyongyang.
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If the eldest son is out, does anyone honestly believe a person in his 20s will become a successor? I have a feeling the elders will not allow any of his sons to take over. Are they going to allow a "kid" run the country?
Even his young sons seem to have little chance.
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According to a Japanese sushi chef who worked for Kim Jong-il for 13 years, the 'Dear Leader' dismissed this son, saying: "He's useless. He's like a girl".
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Everything seems to be pointing to a military leader as the successor. Even China seems to be pushing this option.
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Because there is no clear successor, analysts are increasingly speculating that a future leader will come from outside the Kim family - possibly from the army.
There is a "large groundswell [of opinion within the army] that the dynasty shouldn't go to the next Kim", said Mr French.
"If it goes to another Kim, he will have to continue the legacy of Kim Jong-il - therefore no economic reform and no progress on the nuclear weapons issue."
Mr French said that China, North Korea's closest ally, was pressing for change on these two fronts, and that Beijing traditionally has close ties with the North Korean military dating back to the 1950-53 Korean War.
Veteran North Korea watcher, Aidan Foster-Carter, mused that the current focus in the official media of the country's "songun" or "military first" philosophy suggested a military man could be next.
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It is an interesting article! Any thoughts?
Mike
02-25-2006, 05:31 PM
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