[USFK Forums] Korea in Crisis: Seoul sets plans for a peace regime with North [WT]

[C. Y. Lee]

Uploaded by C. Y. Lee on Thursday, March 2, 2006

Korea in Crisis: Seoul sets plans for a peace regime with North

By SEKAI NIPPO

Published March 1, 2006

This is the twenty-seventh in an extended series of articles by a team of Sekai Nippo reporters on the crises that face North and South Korea and the prospects for a unified Korea.

The first section of the series focused on South Korea and the next on North Korea. The current section focuses on the prospects for unification.

A link to an index of articles previously published in this series can be found at the bottom of this page. (Editor's note)

South Korea has succeeded in executing significant portions of its plan for North-South economic exchanges. Its basic strategy now is to promote exchanges with the North without regard to the political obstacles that may arise.

To promote such exchanges in a stable environment, the Seoul government has decided it needs to ease military tensions along the ceasefire line that has divided the two Koreas for more than 50 years and construct a regime of peace. The government sees 2012 as the target year for completing this task.

Last year, South Korea's National Intelligence Service set up an office devoted to devising an economic development plan for North Korea. To staff the office, it recruited experts in intelligence, economics, and finance.

In addition, the Ministry of Unification placed small "help wanted" ads in a number of national newspapers for lawyers and people with degrees in political science or economics. Like the NIS, the Unification Ministry was trying to recruit people who would draw up a plan to "establish a system for peace, North-South economic cooperation, and the development of the rule of law."

Most observers believe that these efforts to recruit experts by these two government departments are aimed at developing a proposal for North-South economic cooperation that will be significantly more comprehensive that what is now in effect. The proposal is expected to be an attempt to establish an economic zone in the next 7 to 8 years that will encompass not only North and South Korea but also some regions of China and Russia.

The biggest obstacle to promoting such North-South exchange is the military confrontation between the two sides. South Korea is expected at some point to propose a mutual reduction of military forces deployed along the Demilitarized Zone. One major difficulty in this is that North Korea's policy has been not to recognize South Korea as being a qualified party to negotiate such a deal.

North Korea notes that, according to the current agreement between Washington and Seoul, the commander of U.S. Forces Korea will have operational command authority over the joint forces of the United States and South Korea in wartime. In such a situation, South Korea will not have the authority to deploy its own troops as it wishes.

The U.S. and South Korea discussed the issue of transferring wartime operational command authority to Seoul at their annual security consultation held last October. Subsequently, the South Korean monthly news magazine "Shin Dong-A" reported that Lee Jong Suk, then deputy secretary general of the National Security Council (NSC) and now Unification Minister, told South Korean reporters off the record that that he expected this transfer to take place "before 2015."

In March 2005, South Korean President Roh Moo Hyun commented on the timing of the transfer in an address during the graduation ceremony of the country's air force academy, saying, "Within the next ten years, the [South Korean] military will become an independent military force with its own operational authority." This was understood to include the reduction and withdrawal of U.S. troops now stationed in South Korea.

Transferring wartime operational command authority may be difficult as long as the issue of North Korea's nuclear arms issue remains unresolved.

The six-party talks are currently in recess. In the forth round of the talks held in September 2005, North Korea achieved a number of objectives, including the right to peaceful use of nuclear power, a promise that light water reactors would be constructed on its territory in exchange for its abandoning its nuclear weapons program, a U.S. commitment to peaceful coexistence, a U.S. confirmation that it does not intend to attack North Korea, and a promise for 2 million kilowatts of electricity.

Following these developments, the Strategic Planning Office of South Korea's National Security Council forecast that the verification of North Korea abandoning its nuclear weapons program could be expected to take two to five years, depending the level of cooperation by Pyongyang. In other words, it considered the early part of the decade following 2010 to be a realistic date for completing the verification.

The term of President Roh Moo Hyun expires in February 2008, and the constitution does not allow him to serve a second term. So, the president must foresee that the policy that expected to bring fundamental change to the Korean peninsula's security will only be completed during the term of his successor.

A scenario is emerging that South Korea's next government will begin to tackle issues such as a loose federation of North and South and a general election covering the two sides.

Under the constitution, Roh's successor will be elected to a single five-year term ending in February 2013. So in reality, these issues will need to be resolved before the end of 2012.

Chung Dong Young, president of the South Korea's ruling Uri Party, a former Unification Minister and a major contender to succeed Roh, has raised the issue of revising parts of the South Korean constitution that define the entire Korean peninsula as territory of the Republic of Korea, South Korea's official name.

The thinking goes that South Korea must officially recognize North Korea as a legitimate government before there can be talk of a loose federation encompassing the two sides.

All such preparations need to be completed by around 2012. That year happens to be the 100th anniversary of the birth of former North Korean President Kim IL Sung. Many believe that North Korea hopes to achieve its goal for a federation with the South by that year.

President Roh has set "creating a regime of peace on the Korean peninsula" as his government's security policy goal for 2006, and placed Unification Minister Lee in the key position for achieving this.

Lee is expected to be involved in issues related to North-South economic exchanges, the transfer of wartime operational command authority from the U.S. and the inspection of North Korea's nuclear facilities. Lee has also been appointed to the executive committee of the National Security Council.


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