[USFK Forums] North Korea Draws On China For Strength [Forbes]

[C. Y. Lee]

Uploaded by C. Y. Lee on Wednesday, January 25, 2006

Forbes International

North Korea Draws On China For Strength

Oxford Analytica, 01.24.06, 6:00 AM ET

North Korean leader, Kim Jong-il, concluded a nine-day visit to China last week. North Korea enjoys closer strategic ties with China than with any other country. While Kim is determined not be drawn too tightly under China's wing, he is seeking to benefit from closer economic ties with Beijing as well as its solid political support.

Kim spent most of the time in central and southern China. He visited Wuhan and Yichang in Hubei, before going on to Guangzhou and the two Special Economic Zones of Zhuhai, Shenzhen in the south of Guangdong province. These are two of the richest cities in China and the home of some of its boldest reform experiments. Most of the 17 facilities Kim was reported as visiting were high-tech enterprises, producing smart cards, optical fiber cable, lasers and financial software.

The economic and business focus of Kim's visit was its most striking feature. However, its implications for policy change in North Korea are less certain. Kim will also have had Chinese aid and investment in mind. For Kim, the attraction of increased Chinese investment may be that it promises to boost economic growth without the need for major structural reform.

There is less ambiguity about political ties between North Korea and China, which are stronger than they have been for some time. Kim's latest visit to China was his fourth since 2000. It took place barely two months after Chinese President Hu Jintao visited Pyongyang.

The new cordiality reflects a careful calculation of interests:

Fear Of Dependence. Though he is happy to take advantage of South Korea's generous "sunshine" policy, Kim fears dependence on Seoul, particularly given that there may be a change of government there in two years' time. In this context, China is a useful counterweight.

Beijing Calculus. China's decision to host the six-party nuclear talks and offer aid and investment to Pyongyang is designed to retain North Korea as a buffer state, while hopefully reining it in.

Succession. A report by the official Xinhua news agency wishing North Korea "political stability" as well as prosperity, suggests another theme for Kim's visit. He will be 64 next month, amid growing discussion as to his eventual successor Kim can be expected at some point to discuss with Hu Jintao the question of who will succeed him in Pyongyang.

The timing of Kim's visit clearly suggests a bid to resolve the six-party impasse. Confirmation appeared to come from the sudden return to Beijing on Jan. 18 of U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia Christopher Hill, a week after he had visited the Chinese capital. China is understood to have proposed a plan to resolve the sanctions dispute and reconvene six-party talks around Feb. 6.

However, this appears to be optimistic. U.S. Treasury officials have been visiting countries in the region, apparently proffering evidence of North Korean involvement in counterfeiting, money laundering and drug trafficking. North Korea has long been associated with such activities, and Washington's pursuit of the issue at this juncture does not suggest an early resumption of six-party talks.

Kim's visit to China has strengthened a relationship that suits the strategic interests of both parties. Beijing hopes to preserve North Korea as a non-threatening client state while Kim is keen to play China off against South Korea, which is also ready to engage Pyongyang. This will allow him some freedom of maneuver in the face of U.S. and other opposition to North Korean nuclear ambitions, rendering of secondary importance the implications of his visit for reform at home.

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Oxford Analytica is an independent strategic consulting firm drawing on a network of more than 1,000 scholar experts at Oxford and other leading universities and research institutions around the world. For more information please visit www.oxan.com, and to find out how to subscribe to the firm's Daily Brief Service, click here.

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