I've been waiting for an ICBM test out of NK for years.

I have long said NK's not shooting up one was a clear sign it believed there were limits to how much provocation it could get away with.

I have long said NK's provocations since the late 1990s has been based on an equation concerning how much it might gain from the US vs the potential of alienating China and SK.

The more provocative NK acts, the harder it is for China and SK to back it.
So, to use a more provocative act, it either needs to be fairly sure it stands a good chance to force the US to make concessions and/or that China and SK will continue to back it anyway.

The 1998 missile test caused such a shit storm, I think the reason NK hasn't tried it again sooner was fear it would push China away too much.

But, the economic sanctions the US put on its illegal banking activity last year has put too big a dent in the regime's resources.

I think NK has also gained confidence over the last few years that China and SK will avoid as much as possible putting any real pressure on the North no matter what the US says.

So, the costs of shooting up an ICBM have gone down while the need for concessions from the US has gone up.....

Thus ---- a missile test.

-----------------------what I am most curious about right now is ------

what comes next?

And I don't mean in the aftermath of the test.

I mean ----- what provocation is next (if the US does not cave in)?

I think it is a pretty solid guess that ----

-the United States will not make useful concessions to Pyongyang without making NK not only agree to certain measures (like verification, inspections, and other things) but also begin following through with those promises.

-NK will not accept any conditions it has to perform at the same time it recieves concessions or before it gets the goodies....

...in short, the North will not agree to anything the US will surely deem vital to an agreement if it can't back out of it easily.

-China and SK will not help the US put more pressure on NK to negociate for real.

-----thus - the status quo will remain.

If it does ------

What moves can NK make next?

By next I don't mean soon.

I mean ----- what major provocation will the North try next to get the US to cave and when?

I see too fairly possible choices:

1. A return to the frequent more minor provocations ---

submarines popping up around NK, moving troops in and out of the DMZ, brief DMZ firefights, increased incursions into South Korean territorial waters, and so on. Things it has done in the past but limited due to the amount of goodies it was getting from Sk and China.

These provocations could also mean bloodshed ---

If Kim Jong Il was willing to shoot up South Korean patrol boats in 2002 because he was jealous of South Korea hosting the World Cup and gained much international recognition ---------- he would be willing to shoot up South Korean soldiers to put pressure on the US to cave.

This line of activity has risks. They would be seen as more directly targeted at South Korea. They would involve SK more directly than a missile launch.

And South Korean society coudl be swung into an anti-Sunshine Policy if pushed too much in a certain way.

Or

2. The North could try testing a nuclear bomb.

It already has the examples of India and Pakistan to look at.

It also has a need to test its nuke design to see if it works.

And a nuke test would be bigger than an ICBM test.

-----I give this nuke test idea a significant chance of being correct.

I say there is a 30% chance we will see NK test a nuke within the next 2 to 5 years if the US has not cut another deal where the North gets much aid for virtually nothing but promises.

And here is how I see the modified equation now that the ICBM thing has been done and is a dead issue pretty much for the next few years (meaning it has lost its shock and motivation value now that it has been done once again).

The equation is whether a nuke test will lead the US to strong military action - possibly/probably aimed at getting rid of the Kim regime or not.

I think NK - especially after watching China and Russia and South Korea's reactions from this ICBM test ---

---- will believe China and SK will not cut the North off even if it tests a nuke.

And I think NK will also increasingly believe the US will not go to war over a nuke test.

And at some point within the next couple of years ----

-----it will test a nuclear bomb underground.

I'm not at the point I would bet money on this outcome even if you gave me fairly good odds.

But, I will not be suprised if by the end of this year I haven't raised the possiblity of a nuke test occuring in the next few years has grown from 30% to a 50/50 crap shoot.

Unfortunately, I'm betting very little will come of this. The US will try to condemn internationally but will continue to be blocked by Russia and China. Maybe ROK sentiments will swing away from Sunshine...maybe. More than likely, things will remain at a stand-still and KCI will keep testing the US for more attention.

I think the TD1 launch in '98 proved more. At least they got that one past Japan. The TD2 launch has been generally accepted as an uncontrolled failure. The remaining Scud tests didn't prove anything the world didn't already know. This was more about flipping the rest of the world off than actually proving technology.

That's what scares me about a nuke test. Who knows if NK has the capability to produce a nuclear yield safely? That could be a real mess.

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China and Russia need to step up and take the lead on this. We all know how much resect anything out of the UN gets. Sanctions is just another word telling some countries they can get more for bootlegging stuff to that country. The US needs to just ignor the situtation until the 6 party talks are agreed to but for some reason we seem to not be able to do that. It is Chinas bastard child they need to rain him in. There are more important things the US need to address then dealing with a spoiled brat dictator.

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Just my humble opinion!

Personally I'd like to see China forwarn the USA, Russia, SK and Japan then invade NK to do a little hit and run nation building of its own. China could invade, depose, disarm, open the border then leave. Then maybe we could all leave Korea to the Koreans, a condition it has not known for generations.

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