[USFK Forums] North Korea fetes birthday by Kim, questions linger [Reuters]

[C. Y. Lee]

Uploaded by C. Y. Lee on Thursday, February 16, 2006

North Korea fetes birthday boy Kim, questions linger

By Jon HerskovitzWed Feb 15, 5:56 AM ET

SEOUL (Reuters) - For North Korea, leader Kim Jong-il's 64th birthday on Thursday is the "most auspicious holiday of the nation," but for the outside world it is a time to ponder questions about a successor and a nuclear crisis.

On Wednesday, soldiers sang songs in praise of the "Dear Leader," foreign dignitaries saw displays of Kimjongilia -- a flower named after Kim -- and cadres worked out how they would dispense to the masses extra food rations to mark the big day.

After all, this is a man who pilots jet fighters -- even though he always travels by land for his infrequent trips abroad.

He has penned operas, produced movies and accomplished a feat unmatched in the annals of professional golf by shooting 11 holes-in-one on the first round he ever played, according to official North Korean reports.

In recent years, North Korea analysts typically mark the day by wondering when Kim will name one of three known his sons to succeed him in the world's only communist dynasty.

Kim Jong-il is now about the same age his father was in 1974 when he made his son secretary to the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea.

That appointment was tantamount to Kim Il-sung anointing Jong-il as his successor, analysts said.

The eldest known son Kim Jong-nam, 34, has apparently fallen into disfavor for trying to sneak into Japan a few years ago to visit Tokyo Disneyland. The others, Jong-chol and Jong-un, are in their 20s and may be too young to be named leader-in-waiting, analysts speculated.

Jun Bong-geun, who heads North Korea studies at the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security, said Kim may have let too much time pass to decide on a successor, or may not feel that any of the three is capable of leading North Korea.

"I think the days of family succession are over," Jun said, adding the North's main benefactor and last remaining ally China may have also soured on the idea of anointing one of the sons.

"China is going to prefer someone who will make North Korea more manageable as far as it is concerned, somebody who will bring more stability to the North," Jun said by telephone. "China is not going to welcome a family succession."

NUCLEAR TALKS

The birthday also comes as six-party talks on ending North Korea's nuclear weapons programs have stalled with Pyongyang saying it cannot come back to the table while Washington tries to topple its leaders through economic sanctions.

Washington has cracked down on firms it suspects of helping North Korea in counterfeiting, money laundering and drug trafficking. It said the matter is for law enforcement and separate from the nuclear talks.

Kim made a rare trip outside of his country last month when he went to China. His visit included a trip Guangdong province where he took a close look at the economic engine that has helped power China's growth.

China, which has hosted and been a member of the nuclear talks among the two Korea, Japan, Russia and the United States, is keen to have Pyongyang return to the table. The last round of talks was held in November.

Some analysts said North Korea is feeling the pinch of the crackdown and went to China to seek help. Others have said parties such as Seoul are seeking a compromise where Pyongyang promises not to engage in any more illicit activities and Washington lets bygones be bygones.

Ralph Cossa, the president of the Pacific Forum CSIS think tank, believes North Korea feels it can weather the crackdown.

"North Korea is continuing to hold out, looking for bigger benefits," he said by telephone.


(With additional reporting by Jack Kim)

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