After it became clear the economic sanctions the US put on North Korea's banking where it funnelled its money from illegal activities were actually hurthing Pyongyang a good bit, I knew an ICBM test could not be far off. I predicted back in Nov and Dec we should expect a test in 2006.

After watching the initial reaction to the ICBM test, I guessed the North would conclude it was not going to get what it wanted out of the test --- which would be the US feeling pressured into cutting some/any deal with the North it could. And once the North concluded the missile test did not alter the status quo, it would build up the nerve to test a nuclear weapon underground.

I gave it a 1 to 3 year window for the North to lead itself into deciding such a test were "the right move".

Today, Korea Liberator links to an ABC news story that says it looks like North Korea is preparing for such a test right now.

I didn't think it would come this soon. I would have thought it would take at least 6 months before Pyongyang decided it was not risking too much by testing a nuke and stood a better chance of getting influencial nations and people to put pressure on Washington to cut a deal/any deal possible "before its too late."

Now, I'll anticipate the future after a nuke test (if it comes): A lot more dust will be kicked up if the North tests a nuclear bomb underground, but at the end of the day, the status quo will probably remain.

I do not believe a nuke test will lead the US to pull the trigger on military action that will cause the end of the NK regime. I know a NK will not convince China or South Korea to agree to any US military action.

I also doubt a nuke test will force China and SK to accept placing sanctions on the North that will throttle and kill it.

And I do not believe such a test will lead the US to give into the North. I do not believe it will lead the US to make another deal like it did in 1994.

There will be a lot of heat and fury and hand wringing and whatnot after a nuke test, but a couple of months after it, things will look much the same as they did before it.

--------And that is when people should start to become frightened.

Because ------ in North Korea's way of thinking ---- the next logical step after a nuke test has failed to scare the US into caving into its demands --- will be to start killing people.

The North is a gangster state. It does not believe it can survive if it starts negociating from a position of weakness. It will want to believe it is setting the stage for whatever deal is cut. And it will believe it can outlast the other nations involved with it.

So, instead of making decisions like - say - a corporation would - where they could accept sitting down to cut a deal with acceptable loses to boost the company ----- the North will make moves like a gangster would:

testing an ICBM and a nuke is like a mobster blowing up a garbage truck or a restaurant run by a rival family. It is a scare tactic. It is a move to show the other side you mean business and you are serious and you are know you are strong enough to take them on.

And if the scare tactic does work --- you make them bleed. You go to the mattresses. You make the other side hurt until it decides it is costing too much not to negociate with the other side on equal terms.

In short, if a nuclear bomb test does come within the next 3 years, I believe it will not lead to the North getting what it wants, and after that, the North will try to turn the situation into an East Asian Palestine:

it will seek to gain what it wants by turning up the pressure on Washington and others ---- what it considers the weak democracies - democracies that can cave into something like "public pressure".

Firing an ICBM was already a pressure button to push, and it has pushed it without getting the desired results.

A nuke test is the next step up short of bloodshed.

When that fails to force Washington's hand ----- bloodshed will come - and it will come on a regular basis.

I give this 2 to 5 years to happen as long as the current status quo remains the same.

Interesting and logical take on the situation. My take on it is that there would be no tit for tat 'blood shed' incidents started and/or instigated by the north upon the south. I think the little bastard in the north has learned how to manipulate the younger minds of the south with the hearts and minds propaganda. He will want to be seen as a 'Great Korean Hero' and will not do anything to jepardize that super ego trip of history with those in the south who have been duped into his way of thinking. I think you are right in that he will try to make it the 'Palestine' of the far east. Korean nationalism is his game and he wants to be the Napolean of Korea. He will continue to use Japan and the USA as the common enemy focal point through every propaganda opportunity he can use but, any physical action will be directed to the US or Japan via third parties who have a common dislike of Japan and the USA. He will sell nuclear and other weaponry to our enemies, letting them have the option of stricking at the US and he will sit back, continuing to play his hearts and minds game with the weak minded youth of the south.

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Turk Quid Pro Quo

I think NK will consider how it might turn off South Koreans by striking against it, but I don't think NK cares enough about what the South thinks. There are some signs of this: The Roh Mun-hyun presidency is the greatest gift NK could have hoped for, but it has done very little to help Roh. It was actually pretty plain and something people talked about the last couple of elections in South Korea. Uri Party is on extremely thin ice and will probably break apart either during the run up to next years presidential election or right after it when it loses. It would seem obviously in North Korea's best interest to throw Uri and Roh some bones to help them gain favor among South Korean voters by making it seem like the Sunshine policy is making great strides. The North faces some serious setbacks in the South if the conservatives win the next election hands down. Uri and Roh even named one of the moves that could help them: the holding of a 2nd NK-SK Summit. But, the North snubbed them.

Next, and directly linked to the blood letting idea, in 2002, Pyongyang exposed its jealously by killing South Korean sailors in a gunboat shoot out in South Korean territorial waters at the height of South Korea's craze over the World Cup.

The next North Korea-logical step up from nuke tests is killing people.

I think they will consider striking targets that will do less damage to its friends to the South, but they will quickly strike at South Koreans if it believes it is easier and will still put pressure on the US.

Above all, the US and the international community is the main goal: to get enough fury going around about the sky falling to pressure the US into cutting any kind of deal it can with the North. If it believes it can do so by killing South Koreans, it will.

Striking out in Japan and Americans there could very well be the first choice of targets.

I think the North will think harder about killing Americans than it will South Koreans. The reason is I think the North realizes the way American society reacts to such things is much stronger than those in the South. That is the primary reason why I believe they could very well strike at South Koreans.

But, striking out in Japan is probably the target the North would like the best. It would not get South Koreans upset much at all, but it would put much pressure on the US as Japan's protector. And it would stir things up greatly because it would help those in Japan who want to beef up its military and remove restrictions on it placed after WWII, and that cause South Koreans and Chinese to go crazy.

So, I guess I am expecting most of all that North Korea will start using terror strikes in Japan after a nuke test fails to gain concessions.