North Korea on Thursday accused South Korea of intruding into its territorial waters in the West Sea and warned that the South would pay dearly for its “military provocation.”

A spokesman for the Navy Command of the (North) Korean People’s Army issued a statement saying that, “The South Korean Navy has perpetrated such grave military provocations as frequently infiltrating warships deep into the territorial waters of the North side in the West Sea of Korea lately.”

NK is usually "good" at reading the international signs and manipulating things. I put "good" in quotation marks, because the strategies Pyongyang has consistently used in the past are very good at getting some concessions out of others while giving next to nothing in return -----

-----this is good for a mafia like regime that cares about nothing but the ruling cliche ----- but it is certainly not "good" for North Korea as a whole.

Anyway, the regime is good at keeping a very tight control of its people and manipulating the outside global community.

But there seems to be something not too smart in how it is squeezing South Korea for the past year.

I can't figure it out.

It would seem if Pyongyang were smart, it would be making moves to help the Roh Mun-Hyun presidency and Uri party win favor among the people --- that it would be giving in to some South Korean demands ------ especially it would be doing ---

------- cosmetic moves ---- show moves ---- that Seoul could promote as great break throughs and more important --- South Korean society could happily wrap its arms around like it was the greatest thing since sliced bread.

The society has shown that it is more than willing to embrace any show jesture by NK --- any thing like a Kim Dae Jung train visit --- and especially just any promise of compromise something in the future (only to break the promises later) --- but South Korean society would just suck it all up and enjoy the Sunshine.

Basically what I mean is ----- North Korea has never had it so good with what it has gotten out of South Korea (and others) since Kim Dae Jung started the Sunshine Policy.

If NK were smart, it would be making moves to support Uri Party so it could win the next presidential election.

Instead, it is doing what it has habitually done to all other nations ----
turning the screws --- using a type of brinkmanship --- to increase the - more than likely these days - smaller amount of goodies it is going to get from the person it is negociating with.

Maybe Pyongyang believes Uri's and Roh's poll numbers are so low --- it has no chance to stay in power in South Korea - and the best thing it can do is squeeze Uri and Roh for as much as they can get the next 2 years while they are in power.

There is some merit in that idea ---

but I think it is a misreading of South Korean society.

I do not believe South Korean society is trying to move toward a return of the conservatives in power.

They are not rejecting the Sunshine policy.

I believe --- they simply have not seen enough "progress" --- whether real or fake ---- in the last couple of years, and that is why they are unhappy with Uri and Roh.

Also, they are unhappy with Roh's drive to damage the US-SK alliance - but that is only more reason for Pyonyang to make it seem Roh is having success with the Sunshine Policy --

-- South Korean society showed in a VERY major way in 2000 --- with even the conservatives - the more South Korean society believes the North is not a threat and the US military is not needed - the more they will kick USFK and the US in Korea in the balls.

Helping Roh and Uri will not only gain more goodies from SK for the next 7 years --- it will help push the US out of Korea.

I think Uri could very well win in the next elections if NK would play nice with Seoul.

But they are going the exact opposite route.

It seems like a bad read of the current environment.

Maybe they will gain some concessions on the West Sea boundary. But it will lose long term if the GNP wins the Blue House next time.

Hmmmm, interesting talking points on why the little man in the north and his regime do what they do. Could it be that they want no sunshine to enlighten the people they rule by fear? Power such as that wielded by the northern regime can only suffer by having more light and openess. Maybe they are doing what they can to keep confrontation alive and the two Koreas apart while putting a public face of striving for unification on it. Keeping their people living in fear of always imminent aggression from the south lets them maintain the corrupt power thay have had for decades. As you pointed out, they have mastered 'milking' the south to their benefit for many years now. Keeping alive the confrontation will allow them to keep on baiting and switching to get more from the south whose younger, non-war generation is gullible enough to take the bait. Unfortunately, the voting base that keeps South Korean politicians in power who should know better than to play to the north has, grown younger and more ignorant of the true face of the north. As South Korean politicians want to get elected to office, many will have to pander to the younger, gullible voters.

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Turk Quid Pro Quo

The Sunshine Policy is for South Korean social consumption only. It is for them to feel better about themselves by saying the Cold War is over for them too.

It does not filter down to North Koreans.

North Koreans have seen light from the outside world more than in the past, but that was a product of the regime's systems collapsing in the 1990s when Russia and China cut it off.

South Korea has not pushed the North to allow more information about the world to reach average North Koreans. They have been content to shower the regime with goodies and pretend it would slowly filter down to the rest of the North when they know good and well it is not.

The Sunshine policy has become nothing but a show.

The North risks virtually nothing by participating.

Yes, I basically agree with most of your points except the one where you say the sunshine doesn't filter to the north koreans. The sunshine policy did allow for many family members who were separated by the 38th parallel to reunite for brief moments. The sunshine policy allowed many people from the south to visit the north, and yes I realize these were controlled visits and on a very small scale. There have been limited bargains and exchanges between small producers in the north and customers in the south for some small goods to sell in the south. While the scale is very small as we tend to think of now days, there can not be such exchanges taking place without the beginnings of talk and rumor from those who are involved in the exchanges. I guarantee, there is some sunshine, information wise, spreading in the north amongst many who have been privy to north - south dealings. Everything has to begin somewhere and in the long run, the changes in thinking that begin on a small scale tend to grow, slowly but; left to grow they often develop in the most rooted changes that take hold in any society. In the USA we call them grass roots movements, remember? Perhaps the north is worried about rumors amongst the people about how much better life is for the people around the world compared to theirs. The most severe of dictators are always toppled sooner or later, usually by the people or a military leader who realizes they must act for the good of the country. We could only wish that there was a military leader in the north strong enough, wise enough and with the gonads to get rid of the little man and take over with peaceful reunification in mind.

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Turk Quid Pro Quo

I think there is some truth to what you say, but I don't think it is significant enough to matter - thus being wrong in the end....just my opinion.

The amount of people who are not controlled by the regime or indepted to the Pyongyang regime for their well-being who make contact with South Koreans as part of the Sunshine policy is too small to be called a grassroots movement.

In fact, the elite who have the most indepth contact should have gained confidence from the South Korean side that the South's Sunshine Policy will do all it can to prevent the collapse of the Pyongyang regime, and since these elite owe their position in the society ---- their lives --- to that regime, the South is giving them comfort that there is a good chance revolution will not come to the North and the society will not cut off their heads.

In short, the South's aid coupled with its not pressuring the North ----

should tend to make these members of the elite more loyal to the Kim Jong Il regime rather than encourage them to risk their lives by pushing for reform.

But, perhaps a stronger reason I disagree with reading the Sunshine Policy light trickling into the North as a significant positive sign is ---

there is so much more getting in by other means.

The flow of refugees back and forth between NK and Manchuria, the many civic groups helping the refugees there, and the amount of firsthand knowledge and things like DVDs, VHS tapes, CDs, and other information sources from the outside world they are taking into the North seems to be having the kind of impact you have in mind as coming from the Sunshine Policy

but those groups that are doing the infiltration of knowledge to the regular people are usually against Seoul's NK policy.

I don't see the Sunshine policy as having nearly as much of a grassroots effect as these underground activites seem to be having....

Think we've gone around in a circle here coming to the same basic agreement. Sunshines through the back door as well as the front door. I view any underground progress as a part of the sunshine policy, albeit not the publicly viewed one. Sunshine is sunshine, no matter the path.

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Turk Quid Pro Quo