In my opinion, there is a simple solution to all of the major problems in the Pacific. First, let's look at the problems:

1. North and South Korea
2. China and Taiwan

In my opinion, China and the U.S. hold the key. Here is my solution.

The U.S. forces Taiwan to to concede that they are part of China and must integrate into the PRC in 20 years. This is like the Hong Kong deal, but different of course.

In return, China does the same thing with North Korea. They force Kim Jong-il's successor to sign a deal that they will integrate into South Korea over the next 20 years.

Why 20 years? Because that is what it will take for North Korea to develop economically without destroying South Korea's economy. If they joined over night it would be a disaster for South Korea as every North Korean would enter Seoul for work. 20 Years would allow South Korea to invest in North Korea and develop the country. This is a win for North Korea as businesses around the world would invest.

This is a win for China, North Korea and South Korea. I would say it is a loss for the U.S. in a sense that the U.S. would loose influence in the region. As long as their is a Taiwan and North Korea problem we have influence. Their would be little reason for bases in South Korea and Japan. Just think of the financial savings! We could then focus on Iran and the Middle East.

Thoughts?

__________________
Visit USFK Classifieds, the FREE classifieds in Korea!

First we, the US, cannot make those decisions for other countries as the Taiwan is nothing like Hong Kong as we do not have a lease. North Korea would say ok but they would want South to integrate into them.

__________________
Just my humble opinion!

Taiwan has little say if the U.S. cancels their defense treaty with them. Some 80% of Taiwanese want to integrate into the PRC, just under the right conditions. President Chen (the Taiwanese President) has a 10% approval rating in Taiwan and his call for independence is reliant on the U.S. defending the Island. As China grows in power Taiwan will have little choice but to be part of the PRC if the U.S. is not a defender of the island. Today, the U.S. is the sole reason Taiwan is not already part of the PRC. There is not a single powerful country that recognizes Taiwan as a country. Almost everyone agrees that it is part of China. Most people call it China Taipei.

North Korea is in big trouble when Kim Jong Il dies. He will die in the next 10 years and who knows what will happen. I am not confident that his sons will take over for long. I don't think China wants a complete collapse in Pyongyang as refugees are bad business.

__________________
Visit USFK Classifieds, the FREE classifieds in Korea!

I question that 80% of Taiwanese want to become under communist rule.
I agree that if the U.S. doesn't defend them, it will happen. But we own a lot of manufacturing plants there...

I also doubt that Kim Jong Il will die in 10 years. I give him 20+. Unless, of course, a military coup occurs. That could happen within a year or so. Regime
collapse is a distinct possibility.

Maybe we should abandon Taiwan and build our Nike factories in the DPRK if they agree to abandon nuclear testing, and take advantage of lower labor costs?

Good points Joe.

I would say that the devil is in the details. I am sure the PRC would continue to allow us to operate our factories and businesses. They would probably give us a better deal as it is just additional money they didn't have before.

As far as Taiwan, I would say that they would integrate over 20 years much like Hong Kong and enjoy a decent amount of autonomy. Also, I would say while the PRC government is communist their economy is very much capitalist. Of course their is a lot of government control, but from what I am reading they are deregulating more and more each year. This is why I have been able to own Chinese stocks through ADR and mutual funds the past few years.

China is a smart country and they realize the more capitalistic they are the more foreign investment they get. In my opinion, this will eventually be the reason communism dies in the PRC.

__________________
Visit USFK Classifieds, the FREE classifieds in Korea!